Developing PNG assets, page-67

Getting back to Maari for a moment..
Maari should produce 2000 bopd to HZN after the workovers.See later re variations to 2000.
At $60US a bbl (including a $5 premium for the quality of the oil) and extraction costs of an assumed $20US a bbl the gross margin is $40US a bbl.
Thats a gross return of $29.2mUS a year to HZN
Maari has an expected life 0f 10 to 15 years.
Assuming 1o years life then over 10 years 2000 bopd at current oil prices would produce HZN $290m US-which has a PDV(present day value) of$230mUS using a discount rate of 5% p.a..
$230mUS is 17.75US cents per HZN share right now-a bit more if you use A dollars.
These are the factors you need to ,or should,consider before accepting the $17cps US valuation for Maari
1. Marri could last for closer to 15 years than 10.
2Maari might last at 2000 bopd for less than 10.Or more money might need to be spent to maintain production
3. Oil prices could be more or less than present prices.
4.and so on -there are heaps of variables.
However if you have a look at some of the analysts values put on Maari (figures like 6cps,8cps 9 cps) with the view that some,at least,wont have confidently assumed 20,000 because that figure (IMO) has only just been underscored in Hzns most recent announcement.
For my money figures like 6,8 or 9 cents could generally have a bit added to them.
Where is all this going?
Answer is that Maari is a solid cash generating asset that is likely to be worth the current SP on its own.
At 8-9 cents you get Beilbu(another cash generator) for nothing and a possible bonanza in PNG.
Im sure Im thinking ANZ is thinking along the same lines.