You present the downside case, which is certainly in the realm of possibility. Lets say IRR in low 20s. The upsides then become:
1. nickel price significantly increases
2. cobalt price significantly increases
3. scandium
4. water purification
5. extraction technology
6. platinum
none of which is built in to that IRR. Just put some scandium credits into the formula, and that IRR spills over 30 no problem.
You present the downside case, which is certainly in the realm...
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