Hi Chuk,
Replying here to your excellent 1st May post and increased NPV based on US$800 base price.
Would I be correct in stating that your new potential NPV of around AU$635 does not include the following, which have the potential of raising the NPV value even further:
1. Reducing the NPV discount rate to 8% from 10% - (I believe DFS's normally use a lower discount rate due to further de-risking of projects).
2. Possibly upscaling production earlier from the initial starting production rate of 50,000mtpa used in the SS to the maximum 150,000mtpa (The max production for the first period of the ramping up phase mentioned in the SS) - Due to the Global shortage of fertilizer caused by Gas prices and the war in Ukraine etc. (Over the LOM this may not be a huge plus, but will improve cash flow early on).
(Taken from Lindsey's comment 12th April 2022 announcement)
3. Additional income streams from additional products where there is new strong demand for phosphate - Taken from announcement on 12th April 2022 :
Item 3. alone could add a very large increase to MNBs bottom line for the long term.
4. Initially reduced costs in not including a MAP content in production, thus reducing manufacturing costs by at least 50%. (This may only be temporary, but again will help MNB's bottom line).
All 4 of these points will help MNB's EBITDA and/or DFS NPV, some less than others, but the others could be dramatic (see the red underlined - Potential ongoing 60,000 hectares of land requiring CPR).
Would welcome comments if I've missed something or have misunderstood anything. IMO the anticipation of the DFS is really something to be excited about and will rerate MNB's SP.
...... and then there's the Green Ammonia.
All in my opinion - GLTAH
