All depends on these 4 things (drive almost all NPV): 1. Price, LiCL and Li2CO3. Long-term (2030+) Li2CO3 should be around US$22-24/t imo with higher near-term prices. I'm also hoping LiCL can get ~70% of full carbonate prices. 2. Max production rate. DFS should at least be 25ktpa. Hoping for more... 3. Opex. Given 40+ year project life, opex assumption moves the NPV needle (even after discounting). HMW should be lowest in class given very high grade and very low impurities. LiCL only phase should be SUPER low opex as we basically throw our super bring in the sun for 6-9mo and get 6+% Li concentrate! 4. Capex. Don't want to see blow out and I 'm hoping a lot of the inflation will be offset by reduced contingency. Remember PFS had a huge 30% capex contingency. At DFS level contingency should be nom ore than 15%. Big benefit of LiCl only strategy initially is lower initial capex.
All the above said, I'm hoping for US$2+B post tax NPV assuming 25ktpa...higher if rate is higher...and yes I have modelled all of this myself in my own economic model
GLN Price at posting:
$1.08 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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