dgoranssons - herd management thursday, page-3

Speaking of herd management.

Few points from the streets of Lan Kwai Fong.

1) No one knows whats going on. No one really.
2) Volumes are dead.
3) Quant boys are trading amongst themselves.
4) Plenty of activity on stock borrow.
5) Plenty of disbelief why Greece has not defaulted.
6) 100% believe the global economy is screwed.
7) 100% believe the market will fall, led by Europe
8) 100% believe that GFC Redux is coming
9) 100% have got no real directional convinction (no one is limit short, or long)
10) 100% can't drink tequila.

Go figure that one out.

Disclaimer:-

On the percentages, they were a sampling taken from chatting with your average insto, hedge fund salesman, private trader and vol trader of not more than 20 and less than 10 (I cannot remember distinctly the number)

Due to alcohol influence, please use a standard deviation of 50%.

Which, using a discounted prudence concept of analysis when taking statistical sampling for a mean expectation, means the market can pretty much do two things.

1) Go up to new highs
2) Break for new year lows.

One thing's for certain. No one thinks we'll finish the year unchanged from here.

Which means - it's probably precisely what will happen.

Markets look sick. Two hours from a 20 point fluctuation of the SPX to close unchanged at 1201 due to Bernanke's commments.

I'm going to bid at 1185 and offer at 1119 with closeouts at 1201.

Stops 5 points either side.

Good luck to me and good night - the lemon and salt taste is getting the better of me.