Wow that has to be the most inaccurate assessment yet of what caused the deaths of 173 people north of Melbourne on Feb. 7th, 2009.
It was 47.9 C here north of Geelong, that day, the third highest temp' reading ever in VIC behind Hopetoun and Walpeup, from memory, on that same afternoon.
It was bloody hot windy and as dry as chips.
The humidity in the middle of the day was down to 2 %, yes 2 %!!
The Kilmore East fire raced steeply uphill to Kinglake, an outer Melbourne suburb, with a north wind, up to 125 km/h, behind it, causing it to crown well ahead as it got into forest racing up the hill and generating scorching heat radiation causing houses to explode rather than catch fire.
The ground fuel was immaterial because of the steep tree-lined ridges, the fire was crowning and swirling with embers, leaves etc., leaping 2-3 kilometres ahead in the tinder dry bush, racing south up the hills as fire does even without that gale force northerly driving it that day.
Marysville was further to the northwest and in thick bush country.
Burning off yet again would have meant almost nothing, because that fire, in that bush setting and howling wind, raced miles ahead of the main fire-front generating a tornado-like firestorm effect, trapping people in their cars on smoke-filled roads and in isolated Marysville.
It trapped them in their homes, and some gathered [and survived] on the centre pitch area at the small sports oval, where many townspeople were surrounded by blazing gum forest and 30-50 metre high flames of incredible temperatures.
Regular burning off would have reduced the ground fuel yes, but the immense heat from the eucalyptus-oil-filled foliage in the tall gum trees and shrubs was horrific and a tiny reduction in total fuel allocated in the grass and sticks and dropped bark was irrelevant.
Have you any idea of the weight and potential thermal energy, of the foliage in the crown of a gum tree?
I do, and it far outstrips, outweighs, out-kilojoules, the ground fuel available in a forest firestorm.
Black Saturday bushfires
The
Black Saturday bushfires[8] were a series of
bushfires that ignited or were burning across the
Australian state of
Victoria on and around Saturday, 7 February 2009 and were
Australia's all-time worst bushfire disasters. The fires occurred during extreme bushfire-weather conditions and resulted in Australia's highest ever loss of life from a bushfire;
[9] 173 people died[6][10] and 414 were injured as a result of the fires.
As many as 400 individual fires were recorded on 7 February. Following the events of 7 February 2009 and its aftermath, that day has become widely referred to in Australia as Black Saturday.
Background
A week before the fires, an exceptional heatwave affected southeastern Australia. From 28–30 January,
Melbourne broke records by sweltering through three consecutive days above 43 °C (109 °F), with the temperature peaking at 45.1 °C (113.2 °F) on 30 January, the third hottest day in the city's history.
The heatwave was caused by a slow moving
high-pressure system that settled over the
Tasman Sea, with a combination of an intense
tropical low located off the
North West Australian coast and a
monsoon trough over
northern Australia, which produced ideal conditions for hot tropical air to be directed down over southeastern Australia.
[11]
The February fires commenced on a day when several localities across the state, including
Melbourne, recorded their highest temperatures since records began in 1859.
[12] On 6 February 2009—the day before the fires started—the
Premier of Victoria John Brumby issued a warning about the
extreme weather conditions expected on
7 February: "It's just as bad a day as you can imagine and on top of that the state is just tinder-dry."
"People need to exercise real common sense tomorrow".
[13]
The Premier went on to state that it was expected to be the "worst day [of fires conditions] in the history of the state".
[13]
A total of 358 firefighting personnel, mainly from the
Country Fire Authority (CFA) and
Department of Sustainability and Environment (DSE), were deployed across the state on Friday evening (6 February) in anticipation of the extreme conditions the following day. By mid-morning Saturday,
hot northwesterly winds in excess of 100 kilometres per hour (62 mph) hit the state, accompanied by extremely high temperatures and extremely low humidity; a total fire ban was declared for the communities affected.
Events of 7 February 2009
As the day progressed, all-time record temperatures were being reached. Melbourne hit 46.4 °C (115.5 °F), the hottest temperature ever recorded for the city
[12] and humidity levels dropped to as low as two percent.
The
McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index reached unprecedented levels, ranging from 160 to over 200. This was higher than the fire weather conditions experienced on
Black Friday in 1939 and
Ash Wednesday in 1983.
[14]
Around midday, as wind speeds were reaching their peak, an incorrectly-rigged
SWER line was ripped down at
Kilmore East. This sparked a bushfire that would become the deadliest and most intense firestorm ever experienced in Australia's post-1788 history. The overwhelming majority of fire activity occurred between the afternoon of 7 February and 7:00 pm, when wind speed and temperature were at their highest, and humidity at its lowest.
Saturday, 7 February (Black Saturday)05:00 am – Bunyip State Park fire jumped containment lines; no other major fire activity.
[17]Late morning – Many fires sprang up as temperatures rose and wind speeds increased.11:50 am – Power lines fell in high winds igniting the
Kilmore East fire (
Kinglake/
Whittlesea area). The fire was fanned by 125 km/h (78 mph) winds, entered a
pine plantation, grew in intensity, and rapidly headed southeast through the
Wandong area.
[18]12:30 pm –
Horsham fire commenced.
[19]12:30 pm –
ABC Local Radio abandoned regular programming to cover the fire situation.
[20]12:45 pm –
Hume Freeway was closed after fire crews failed to contain Kilmore East fire.
[21]Early afternoon – ABC Local Radio received calls from residents of affected areas supplying immediate up-to-date information on fire activity.2:55 pm – Murrindindi Mill fire (
Marysville area) first spotted from
Mt Despair fire tower.
[22][23]3:04 pm – temperature in
Melbourne peaked at 46.4 °C (115.5 °F).4:20 pm –
Kilmore East fire front arrived at
Strathewen.
[24]4:20 pm –Murrindindi Mill fire impacted
Narbethong.Mid-afternoon – smoke from Kilmore East firestorm prevented planes from mapping the fire edge.4:30 pm – number of individual fires across the state increased into the hundreds.4:30 pm – fire commenced at
Eaglehawk, near
Bendigo.
[25]4:45 pm – Kilmore East fire front arrived at Kinglake.5:00 pm – wind direction changed from northwesterly to southwesterly in Melbourne (see Fawkner Beacon Wind chart for 7 February 2009).5:10 pm – air temperature in Melbourne dropped from over 45 °C (113 °F) to around 30 °C (86 °F) in fifteen minutes.5:30 pm – wind change arrived at Kilmore East and Murrindindi Mill (Kinglake/Marysville) fire fronts.5:45 pm – Kilmore East fire front arrived in
Flowerdale.6:00 pm –
Beechworth fire commenced.
[26]6:00 pm – Kilmore East fire smoke plume and pyrocumulus cloud reached 15 km (9.3 mi) high.6:45 pm – Murrindindi Mill fire front arrived at Marysville.
[27][28]8:30 pm – Victorian Health Emergency Co-ordination Centre notified Melbourne hospitals to prepare for burn victims.8:57 pm – CFA chief officer first notified that casualties had been confirmed.10:00 pm –
Victoria Police announced an initial estimate of 14 fatalities.
Sunday, 8 February
- Kilmore East and Murrindindi Mill fires merged to form the Kinglake fire complex.[29]
Map of fire locations on 10 February
Tuesday, 10 February
Spot fires from Kinglake complex fires merged to form the
Maroondah/
Yarra complex.
Tuesday, 17 February
- Six fires still burned out of control, with another nineteen contained.[31]
- Bunyip and Beechworth fires almost contained.[31]
Thursday, 19 February
Victoria Police increased estimate to 208 fatalities.
