I do actually have quite a good understanding of mathematical probability.
I was thinking along the lines of "gut feel" probability, like when you look up at the clouds when stepping outside for a walk and think, "Hmmm ... there's a reasonable probability of rain so I'd better take my umbrella", or, "Hmmm ... there's a high probability of rain so I might give the walk a miss today".
Anyway, we're obviously on very different wavelengths, so just forget it.
