did well yesterday waiting for news, page-17

Once the stock is removed from the All Ords in a fortnight, trade for all intents and purposes will cease. Of course some will still be shifting stock but most will be finished. After that we have a week to the GM and a couple more weeks for statutory formalities associated with share conversions. They presumably want trade to abate in advance of these processes for simplifying their duties and to take the heat out of last minute speculation. Delist offer will probably be made on the consolidated shares given the timetable now but we can all multiply and divide by 5. Still think an offer of 80-90c would be counter-productive and undercut the NASDAQ list since new players will be drafted via CS to cover the extra placement needed to cover the acquisition. This may be up to 50% of current market cap but I think it will be more likely half that unless the new addition is a large cash flow positive entity. If that is the case then current Intevia revenue projections for 2007-9 stand on their own ie with the existing number of shares. Extra value would accrue from the additional company, which would also benefit us. The major play has always been the NASDAQ and for that they needed to bulk up. INitially I thought they would succeed in getting TFS Intevia divisions and then divest the rest after floating. That would have provided about $2.50 for the current shares. In the end they got what they wanted, if a little delayed, but still need to bulk up. The looming acquisition will supply that requirement and that should accompany the listing rather than preceed it. The major holders will maximise their returns (and thus so will we) by ensuring the float price is maximised. Regardless of what we are offered, the real returns will follow listing and not preceed it. If fewer take the delist offer then demand for shares will be even higher as CS will have less stock to place. We should hear about the acquisition in general terms on the 26th even if it is still not identified by name although they have a long history of being cagey. So any delist offer well below a reasonable NASDAQ list price would undercut the success of the float. If CS have done their job and lined up clients (it will take very few) then I expect an offer of at least $1.30. It may well be higher but nowhere near the likely list price.