Neil_WA...The market will likely fall the next few days as you...

Neil_WA...

The market will likely fall the next few days as you say...but by how much and to what parameters?

Will it be forced...technical...or a genuine adjustment of forward value?

Given the unique situation in which the Australian market finds itself (in relation to a reactive scenario to the US lead), there is every likelihood we will not be able to respond to the actual bottom on our markets...thanks to the inevitable gap-up morning on the back of the US lead!

There will be no actionable bottom...well at least, not until it is too late.

Fundamentals suggest our market is far from overheated...even with a wider global adjustment on carry forward values...as such, if it looks cheap now, irrespective of what the DOW does, it probably is!

One key observation...if in fact this was the "beginning of the end", we would not be reading reports, or hearing media sponsored commentary on how dire things are...PERIOD!

Do a double think on why so many of the most powerful people of the world hold controlling media interests...is it just because they like the publicity of their own "rags"?

Seriously, think about this...the impact these people have on the global information flow...what is said about who, what and when. lol...it would be like owning HC, then having complete and absolute power of what is said about which stocks...and when.

The world media is really just one big hotcopper...up rampers...down rampers...and genuine contributors...all talking their book!

The system of information control is such that when the real crash comes, the talk will be anything but "crash", it will predominantly be..."this is just a healthy correction...there is nothing to fear"

At this time, we will have every expert analyst there is pushing this view...telling the masses to be calm...and definitely not to sell; all the while, they will be offloading.

This is the way it is...always has been!

The fact we are hearing doom and gloom now and recommendations to sell from some very respected groups...more than anything else, tells me they are facilitating the reloading from sells late June and early July.

This is a cycle that repeats.

Back in May, I bought on the back of the correction, in spite of significant efforts to paint a dire picture by many commentators...and whilst I went backwards for about two days, the recovery was swift and just a week or so later all my buys were in significsnt profit. Had I waited for the "bottom" I actually would have ended up paying more than I did.

I see the current activity as being just another version of that.

In my view, we are looking at a sentiment sting...provide the kick-off sell down, kill sentiment with a "whipping boy" subject (sub-prime)...then work your magic in the markets.

The sub-prime "disaster", in all reality, equates to less than 6 months of operational costs for the efforts in Iraq...how long have the US been in Iraq now?



The US problems are not sub-prime...they are much deeper than that...which is why I view the current correction as just that.

The real problem for the US and the global markets as collateral are percolating nicely at the moment…and yet to come to the surface. When they finally hit home, you will know about it, but not from the business media, who will no doubt be screaming from the rooftops not sell...telling you it is just a correction!

Lol…you will know about it afterwards though!

Cheers!