I would give zero credibility to stockos oil oil oil post.
Back on 9/11/02, he made his first Banda oil oil oil call when the drill had barely touched the water:
Subject HDR - Leaking like a sieve, oil oil oil ?? ( 3 reads - 1 replies )
Posted 11/09/02 14:22
Member stocko
Same as last time guy's.
These posts from last year demolish his call on Chinguetti.
Member sitting_duck
Email Address withheld
Member Since 24/11/99 21:42
No. Connections 1193
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Yeh, Stocko does have some close contacts.
I remember Stocko's Oil Oil oil post, and the one that followed up the next day Sell Sell sell, after a phone call from his mate!, and then a buy buy buy post!, after and hour or so!
Like many others its a pump and dump tune...having said that I think Stocko has been a very strong advocate for HDR (until he sells them). SailorGirl was pushing HDR a long time before Stocko.
I've had enough of down rampers, and I'm gunna take the big stick to the next one I see.
Reply by zacharia to sitting_duck (13 of 14)
Message Stocko's 2nd Big Call (read 463 times; 0 replies )
Conference ASX
Posted 22/06/01 10:19
Member zacharia
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Member Since 5/05/01 10:31
No. Connections 120
No. Posts 21
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Who can forget Stocko's fabled "Oil, Oil, Oil" posting of 11 May? Is he making another great call here?
If Stocko can answer the following questions then I think we can rely on him again:
The HDR announcement on the day of Stocko's original posting indicated the well (Chinguetti-1) was at 1,956m drilling ahead in 12in hole. This was as at 10 May 14:00 WST, ie about 20 hours prior to Stocko's post (which I think was at about 13:00 EST or 10:00 WST).
The next HDR announcement (a few hours after the trading halt on Monday 14 May) was as follows:
"Current depth 2,590 metres. Drill ahead in 12? inch (311mm) hole from 1,956 metres to 2,136 metres. Pull out of hole to change drilling bit assembly. Run in hole and drill 12? inch hole from 2,136 metres to total depth of 2,620 metres. Pull out of hole to run wireline logs."
This was as at 14 May 08:00 WST (note the later than usual "as at" time).
The first question is whether Chinguetti-1 had reached the oil zone at the time of Stocko's post. Recall that the oil column extends from roughly 2500m to 2600m, with a shallower 7m gas interval (depth rt not published - but Stocko definitely said "Oil Oil Oil", not "Gas Gas Gas"). Could the well have reached 2500m in the (roughly) 20 hours between 10 May 14:00 WST and the time of Stocko's post? Recall that there was a drill bit change at 2136m, and hence a run-out / run-in as well as 550m of drilling before reaching the oil zone. I'm no offshore expert, but that seems a little too quick to me. [Rodsteele put up a post on 11 May stating that drilling was currently happening at '28m per hour with a 12.25" PDC bit and downhole motor' - so 560m in 20 hours is not out of the question, but this would allow no time for a drill bit change]
Second question: if the well had already hit oil at 2500m by 11 May 10:00 WST and was then only 120m from total depth, the delay until release of initial results on Wednesday 16 May seems pretty long, since wirelines would have been started by Friday evening (11 May) our time.
Hopefully Stocko can explain these issues and then we'll have no reason to question this latest post!
No hard feelings. At least he is barracking for the winning team this time!
HDR
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