Friends, i wish clarify a view i posted earlier in this forum,...

Friends, i wish clarify a view i posted earlier in this forum, which ruffled the feathers of a few peacocks out there.

BHP at $25 is not as unreasonable as it is unlikely. This is how i call the play:

There is no doubt, none, that the 18th August Preliminary Financial Results posted by BHP will be spectacular.

But that is where it will end, that is the peak for BHP (in reporting terms), those results will not be surpassed (at least not in the medium term), and any shareholders still holding a position in BHP would be advised to sell on the back of those results, as the share price will be heading south soon after that.

Why?

Investors are dramatically underestimating the effects of a global economic slowdown brought about by the 'sub prime crisis'.

Demand for commodities from slowing US and European economies will not be offset by infrastructure demands of the Chinese economy, as many believe.

China will undergo a post olympic games slowdown, which will at the very least soften demand. Cracks are already starting to appear.

Those levels of growth and demand brought on by a freight train chinese economy cannot be sustained. Heaven help the shareholder when the chinese bubble bursts.

Financial 'big wigs' are trying their best to soften the blow, they know the s--t has only partially hit the fan in regards to sub prime crisis. Make no mistake, more s--t, and in bigger handfuls is on the way.

Friends be prepared, grab an umbrella and take cover.