The writer implies no investment recommendation. This report...

The writer implies no investment recommendation. This report contains material speculative in nature. Investors should seek professional investment advice. The writer owns shares in Arrium.

Here are some numbers showing the difference between a currency of 92 and 82 cents.

Note : using Iron ore at US$96 and grade discount (realised price) the same as 1H14 of 95.7% of the benchmark price.

Steel EBITDA change 1 cent = $10 less 25% for safely

Summary
currency at 92 cents EPS = 10
currency at 82 cents EPS = 26

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3
1		FY15	FY16
2	CFR 62%	96	96
3	AUD	0.92	0.82
4	CFR AUD	104	117
5	Tonnes	13	13
6	Grade	95.7%	95.7%
7	realised price' Sold @	100	112
8	COGS	70	70
9	Profit / t		42
10	Iron Ore	388	546
11	Mining Cons	188	205
12	Steel	60	135
13	Recycling	10	10
14	Discountinued
15	Head Office	16	16
16	EBITDA	630	880
17
18	Iron Ore	198	198
19	Mining Cons	50	54
20	Steel	100	98
21	Recycling	10	10
22	Other	4	4
23	DA	362	364
24
25	EBIT	268	515
26	Interest	97	91
27	PBT	171	425
28	Tax Rate		15%
29	Tax	35	64
30	NPAT	137	361
31	Shares Start	1,366	1,366
32	Shares End	1,366	1,366
33	Accounting EPS	10.0	26.4