dimensions of cannington, page-55

This has become a healthy thread on a difficult subject, namely what are the odds. This is especially important for anyone still thinking about getting into RDM before the results of this hole are announced.

My answer to a few points raised so far:

Do we have a resource? Strictly speaking, a resource in Australia is an orebody that has a better chance of being mined than not. It is too early to say whether Maronan is a resource, we have hit intersections that are economic grade and width in the last hole, but we don't have enough drilling yet to say whether there are economic quantities stepping out from there. Given the interection was deep, I am sticking with my guess that we need at least 5 million tonnes.

Are the probabilities of success as bad as Sido's numbers show? Definitely not, the odds have been reduced from that by the hits around the current hole. I haven't looked closely, but in my memory very few of those world class orebodies were found with the first hole, in fact it often took 15 or 20 before it became obvious that the exploration was going to succeed.

But the odds are still in favour of this just being another hole in the process of trying to find the big one.
Keep in mind that very few of us are ever rewarded in life for really doing our best, but our chances of being rewarded are higher than if we just laze around all the time. In financial terms that means laying your bets in a rational manner.