US markets
LYS.CF + 0.02 = .7.16 / 0.72 = AUD 9.94 AUD
LYSDY + .03 = 7.14 . 0.72 = AUD 9.89 AUD.
Dow last 2 days 35,950 to 36,400 1 PM US EDT. No question in my mind LYC.AX should go over 10.00 to night. If not, what does that say?
Are you worried at all about this being the runup before crash? Every crash has been proceeded by sharp run ups. It's caused by over optimism. (OO) When that starts to crack SP drops quickly. However not every runup has been followed by a crash. It all depends on what stimulus is for run up. JMO this is pure OO. No foundation is very bad. Please do not tell me how great this stock may be in 2023, 2026 or 2030. Way too far away to have much impact on next 12 months.
In US CBOE Put Call ratio is considered to be the good judge of Optimism vs Pessimism. 1 is neutral. 0.5 is considered very optimistic. 2 is considered very pessimistic. To day the Put call ration on equity is 0.45. It has been as low as 0.35 Which usually only happens before a major correction .
Explanation Optimistic people think market goes much higher. They buy calls. The buy stock on margin. Because they are sure investment will pay off. That levees them vulnerable to any disruptions in market.
Pessimistic people buy puts. They build up cash. They short sell. All because they think market is over in flatted. So if market goes down they have money to go bargain hunting. The recent fall in Lynas calls to 1.5% says a lot about the thinking of people. Even the nay Sayers have become optimistic. So little protection left for shorters to buy to cover if stock goes down. I know some of you will think this is backwards. A little research and openminded thinking and it will all start to make sense. There are many books on optimism and pessimism n the market.
Here is a chart and commentary on all US markets margin levels down 1.8% in Nov but still near all time highs. Look at levels before Dot com '20 and Banks '08. If things get shaky there is little left to absorb the down draft. Margine calls will amplify it.
Margin Debt: Down 1.8% in November, Still Near Record Highs - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
(20min delay)