PU, I follow JPM reasonably closely for their data, 1/ they are...

PU, I follow JPM reasonably closely for their data, 1/ they are close to Lynas, 2/ they are generally reasonably conservative (last analyst to get sucked into bubble hype) and they are using "realised" prices of $25kg FY13, $27kg FY14 & $30kg FY15 so they are not "my" prices and certainly not my spin so I really don't give a stuff what you think.

I floated a few ideas as to why the JPM "realised" prices (a term also used by Molymess in their reports) might be under the basket, I've seen carbonate listed at 80% of oxide values in several places (i.e. HAS) but I accept that may not be the case. Toll processing/shipping was the other rationale, and while I have no idea of the costs, they would have to be a clear deduction from basket. There may also be some premiums built into some supply agreements but again I'm going to use JPM's numbers in the absence of any firm evidence to the contrary.

Of FAR more concern is the question - can Lynas sell 100% of production thru the next 12 months? All the Sm, Gd, Ce, La etc or does inventory not only deduct from cash flow but add to CoP against realised sales?

I'm holding over 7 figures in Lynas, averaged down around $1, but won't be adding ST unless <50c. Fortunately don't need the money (but will need to rearrange a few things) so have no problems holding till mid 14 and longer but am now having some concern that returns will eventually justify the opportunity costs. Amongst others, I've a similar amount in boring old TLS that's returned 40+% plus 11% FF. Lynas may catch it but ATM it's looking like a ride thru the House of Horrors, but always delighted to be wrong.

Remain confident of the Lynas business plan, and their ability to negotiate near term risk, but the sector macros are STUFFED, for at least the next 6/12 months.