dipped below the high low-support disappearing, page-79

A week or so ago NC very confidently called S1 full production end Q1 and S2 end Q2.
In the investor briefing S2 shifted to sometime 2nd half or words to that effect.
Purely my interpretation but together with "thin trading", "no sign of demand recovery", etc that spells one thing to me. It was probably checking the Sojitz agreement and realising the 8500t from S2 was an allocation rather than a contract, together with the fact that Japan was SELLING RE to Sth Korea late last year, that was the confirming point.
The SP is again sitting very vulnerable on the charts with no signs of strength and I'm not going for another ride without some cover.
For those using the opportunity to do some further NC bashing, he was the first industry leader to call the current situation back in November at Roskills, and I personally watched him knock the stuffing out of a room full of peers (the presentations on the Lynas website and I've pointed at it many times) and rather than buffer the glee club he's just given punters some strong indications as to market conditions.
Think about it, our major competitor has only been able to sell 16kt ROW for each of the past two years and Lynas is about to put another 22kt on the market with no sign of demand picking up? Even if Lynas is able to wipe China completely we've got inventory that potentially adds 25/40% to CoP at full production.