Arafura ARU is a high capex semi-diversified REE/phosphate/Uranium play compared to low capex MAK which is really all about just phosphate as I don't think many would see much value in the other projects right now. If you like phosphate and a chance to make 10-20x your capital in 2-3 years - ceteris paribus of course esp. wrt the RP price - MAK is it and that is why we are here surely. ARU is not an alternative phosphate investment IMO. Their phosphate>phosphoric acid is a co-product and in relatively small amounts. Their production costs are still very much up in the air as well.
ARU needs the thick end of a billion of capex and has a truly miniscule amount of phosphate compared to MAK. The outlying Arruwurra area just drilled already has far more phosphate than ARU has, as you will discover if you are handy with a calculator!!!
MAK can set up a low capex operation, free-dig up likely DSO ore to start, shoot it through to Darwin and get a few hundred bucks per ton for a couple mill tpa = REV at least $600mill pa before ARU will even have started to build its own complex plant.
Having said that I also have quite a few ARU shares as in terms of strategic investment in a scarce global resource ie REE it is a great medium-term (ie 4-5 year)play. I've been in ARU since under 30c prior to the NUP demerger.
Right now I would say ARU has a significantly higher risk profile than MAK. Any sensible investor re-assesses risk on an ongoing basis in any event. If the global RP price reduces to $US200/t then MAK might only be a 5-bagger instead of a 10-bagger, how terrible!!!!!
AEV Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
