Good points. I totally agree with everything you say about ambition. And that the creation of a successful business is often about much more than just making money.
Gus and his team, will no doubt be disappointed about the impacts of Fukushima and the GFC as it has stymied their plans. Of, course, just how disappointed is something we can only speculate about. They know where things stand with the DFS - so they have a much clearer view of what hurdles have to be cleared to get it over the line. The size of their 'disappointment', I imagine, will be somewhat related to the height of those hurdles.
If they see that the U price has been the main stumbling block to a successful DFS (which I suspect is the case - and something out of their control) and if they believe that the fukushima and GFC generated problems are relatively short term (i.e. less than 2 years), they will really have little cause for disappointment. Because the SP will likely surge through 10-12c just on a return of the U price to $65 or more - which is possible by the end of next year (as long as there are no more disasters). And this would still be a year away from the earliest possible mining commencement date, based on the current SML timetable.
That is, with the program flexibility provided by the long SML lead time, fukushima and the GFC may end up having NO impact on the commencement of mining - so long as there is full recovery in the U price over the next 12-18 months.
In that broader context - and the more immediate context of no progress and missed milestones in 2011 - the performance rights can only be seen as an opportunistic and greedy gambit.
Out of any 'disappointment' management may have had, they have concocted a plan (the performance rights) which is over the top generous and significantly dilutes shareholders many of whom, even afther the 2nd hurdle (12c) is cleared, will still have little to show for all their trouble and support.
PEN Price at posting:
4.1¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
