directors selling, page-4

Dejavoo

I have a NPV for LYL of $7.20 per share based on the following assumptions;

Starting fcf 18m
Growth rate yr1 2%
Growth rate yrs 2-6 5%
Growth rate yrs 7-8 3%
Terminal Value growth rate 3%
WACC 8%

I feel the growth rates are conservative enough based on the outlook for mining investment and steps LYL have taken to mitigate the risks of investment slowdown.

Ideally you would look for a significant discount to this NPV before buying (25-40% depending on your individual requiremnets for a margin of safety)

A friend told me about ANG around 12 months ago and I have had it on a watchlist since. I haven't followed it too closely however and prefer to wait and see how the business looks post integration of the two recent acquisitions.

I see LYL as a excellent well managed growth stock but obviouslty it exists in a sector that contains risk through decreased investment. Their geographic spread and exposure to gold projects lessen this risk somewhat imo. However I continue to balance my LYL holding against a similar size holding in WOW (consumer staples) to offset overall portfolio risk.