You don't need a Kondriatev cycle to explain it, the fact is...

You don't need a Kondriatev cycle to explain it, the fact is that Lihir has been an underperformer since day 1.

If you had bought in the Lihir float 12 years ago, you would have had a bunch of rights issues to fund and you would have received 2 x 1 cent dividends and you would have had an absolutely horrible return on your money.

At least once every year, they have had some kind of production downgrade or cost increase and they never make any progress. At this point more than half way through the life of a supposedly good mine, they should be making a real profit. And they never do.

The only way to make money out of Lihir gold is to buy on weakness and then sell when you are 10-20% ahead and wait for the next price dip. Any long term holders of this stock have not made any money.