SOSoSlow - I completely agree with all your comments. This was a really disappointing and concerning update in many respects:
- The update clearly tries to fudge a deceleration in growth and the negative cash-flow of $28M in the quarter(!) by talking about a grand 3-4 year strategy. I think it is pathetic that they omit the negative cash flow metric in the Q3 highlights slide of the trading update deck and simply refer to the YTD performance, and don't provide any commentary on this.
- Also glossed over was the large uptick in paid acquisition costs in Q3 which grew by 71% YOY and 107% YTD. So much for the "fly-wheel" effect - buzzwords do not conceal the fact that it feels like RBL's covid-enabled growth rate can now only be sustained by paid acquisition, which will be a large and permanent drag on margin.
- What is the point of a 4 year strategy that halves margin for 3-4 years only to get it back to the current margin, albeit teh update says that even achieving this is not without significant risk? Profitless prosperity.
- Where's the detailed commentary around what they are actually doing to fix fulfillment and quality issues, or metrics around repeat business? In my view the CEO's letter is full of platitudes, aspirations, buzzwords and corporate speak. For example, wtf is "above system growth", "thoughtful experimentation" or "proactive action". What is being done to fix brand damage from increased litigation from trademark infringement in the US (e.g. this class action: https://www.lawdragon.com/2021/03/29/browne-george-filesclass-action-tohalt-leading-onlinecounterfeit-merchandiser/ and this https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=e4e8c110-9575-4f6a-9f5f-3a5d53f867c0 or this sort of horrible PR: https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/crime/in-pictures-loyalistrepublican-terror-goods-still-on-sale-via-redbubble-3178612; https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202104/16/WS6078f270a31024ad0bab5fbc.html
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SOSoSlow - I completely agree with all your comments. This was a...
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