1. CPC is a sovereign wealth fund and not "smart" money, so you cannot use their purchase as a basis for the value of 10% dorado stake or the quality of the project. 2. If Dorado was an extremely attractive project, Santos would have progressed it to FID and sanctioned it. 3. Instead Santos is pushing "FID ready" out and talking about Dorado having to compete with other projects for capital. This would not happen if Dorado was a very attractive project. 4. Santos themselves want to get out of Dorado to some extent, so it's not just CVN's 10% stake on the market, there's probably a minimum of another 20% from Santos and if Santos could sell their 80%, i have no doubt they would. This makes CVN's stake harder to sell. 5. If Santos want to prove up Pavo with more drilling, this will be big $$$ out of CVN's cash pile and may not lead to further value.
Everyone has blindly been led to believe that Dorado is a world class project. If it was, it would have reached FID already, been sanctioned and be under development.
Santos has spent years working this project and is the most informed party - they want to sell down and keep pushing FID, this tells you how world class it is.
There's a price for everything but I'm being very careful and this could be a multi year journey to exit.
CVN Price at posting:
16.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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