I posted a lot of the below the other day, but it is interesting in that of the many more things which Clinuvel has going for it over Disc, DNA REPAIR was not even mentioned. The Clinuvel announcement of assisting DNA Repair yesterday led to a bit of a share price jump but it can be seen that CUV is still very undervalued at less than half the value of their very best comparison stock in Disc Medicine. Disc up another 5% last night and looking strong on no news I could find, hopefully Clinuvel have turned the corner and can start to return to a fairer value from this point, but as we know a greedy fund is very interested in shorting CUV.
Clinuvel and Disc medicine are both primarily about EPP right now, however Clinuvel has much, much more happening while Disc basically runs a couple of Phase 1 and 2s. Disc even flunked a recent EPP phase 2 on the time in sunlight endpoint not being significantly increased which is what EPP is all about, while CUV is running a Phase 3 into blockbuster Vitiligo with an already FDA approved drug. Cash burning Disc LOST $76.4 Million USD ($116 M AUD) last year running Phase 1 and 2s while CUV made last FY $31.6 Million PROFIT after taxes. All of this makes Disc the very best comparison stock to Clinuvel and below is the latest market cap comparison which is interesting because after the Disc EPP trial fail they took a big hit but they are well on the way back to regaining all that lost value (up another 5% last night and looking strong) and really doing a great job at attracting investor interest. This is in contrast to the much stronger, better and more exciting company in CUV which just doesn't seem to attract much investment despite having three IR experts on three continents and being a less risky proposition due to their monopoly position and super cash generation - hopefully the increased volume and interest in CUV yesterday is a sign of things to come.
Disc: Market cap $1.7 Billion
* running some phase 1 and 2s, might have a clinical pathway forward in EPP but many years off entering that market if ever
* burning through cash which is ok for this stage, recently had no trouble raising more capital at a much higher valuation than CUV.
* Nothing in pipeline near comparable to Clinuvel pipeline
CUV: Market cap $0.86 Billion (yes I didn't get those two valuations mixed up, the startup is worth nearly $1 Billion more than the very profitable monopoliser)
* complete monopoly in EPP market, recent update showed potential competitors struggling and CUV perhaps picking up patients from discontinued programs and completed trials. Scenesse with remarkable 95% patient retention.
* Possible expansion of number of implants in Europe to bring in line with research findings so perhaps increase to 6 from 3 or 4 (this would be huge)
* Already treating some children for EPP, hopefully will gain label expansion after further study
*Vitiligo Phase 3 running, slated for FDA submission 2026, drug already FDA approved and SAFE for EPP. Vitiligo TAM mentioned $4.5 BILLION USD and 9% penetration years 1-2 giving $490 - $570 Million USD. Compelling pictures of treatment shown and lots of centres ready to go if/when approved.
* Phase 2 running in mega blockbuster Stroke indication
* Phase 2 to begin this year in mega blockbuster Parkinson's Disease
* Europe Orphan Drug designation for VP and XP
* Assist DNA REPAIR - the implications of this are enormous for both pharmaceuticals (eg XP) and cosmetics
* Many years of long term safety data with an already FDA, EMA, TGA approved drug.
* Stated intention by CEO to be a 'household name by 01/01/2026.
* Openly talking about a tanning product, clearly a viral product if they release it and would likely give them household name status (tanning, sun protection and maybe even skin cancer preventing all in one?? sounds like a good thing - we live in hope)
* Share buyback with stated intent to redistribute capital to shareholders via this method. Clinuvel stated how the share buyback will compound their strategy of minimising share dilution with 1.5 Million shares to be repurchased. (they only have 50 Million on issue which is also pretty amazing). Only a tiny percentage of cash reserves required to fund this share buyback and they could easily extend it if required as they also mentioned.
* A tightly held and lightly traded stock, easily manipulated unfortunately compounded by some weird management decisions and waffle over the years. I see the share buyback as an opportunity to turn this around by actively supporting shareholders by restoring value. Look at Cochlear; words: BUYBACK $75 Million and ACTION, $75 Million bought back on market simply and without fuss and Cochlear shareholders happy. Clinuvel words: BUYBACK 1.5 Million shares, ACTION (nearly 4 months later) less than 50 thousand shares bought back. This needs to change, actions need to match words in support of shareholders. The pipeline is exceptional, it is time to buyback and continue the share price momentum and positivity.
Markets at all time highs, CUV at 5 year lows despite being more profitable and better positioned than ever before, ASIC data showing massive daily amounts of short activity with CUV and nearly 6% outstanding open short positions - all very easily combatted if they ever begin the share buyback in earnest and attract a bit of serious institutional investment (Disc is very good at this). A bit of insider buying would also help I believe, just to show they believe in the strategy as much as long term retail investors do. It was mentioned just one one investor buying a large number of shares back in Sep 21 was enough to take the price over $40 so things can turn very quickly.
ALL IMO DYOR
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