The Disc/Clinuvel comparison is something I don't think I have...

The Disc/Clinuvel comparison is something I don't think I have ever witnessed so blatantly paradoxical on the markets, especially when the exceptional cash printing abilities of Clinuvel were on show again last month with results exceeding all analyst forecasts and coming in at NPAT up 16% to ~ $36 Million, following on from last years cracker of NPAT up 47% to ~ $30 Million and giving eight consecutive years of profits. CUV control most expenses very well and it would seem likely they will deliver similar growth again next year which is higher than companies like CSL and COH have forecast yet they trade on P/Es of double or more than CUV - historically CUV has traded on a much higher P/E than lately (as well as trading on higher P/Es than slower growing giant companies like COH and CSL). There is no way CSL or COH have the ability to explode revenues and profits by many multiples in just a few years as CUV could well do if Vitiligo is approved as a new indication to an already FDA approved drug. Perhaps the interest rate cutting cycle will lead to a push into growth stocks and an end to the constant shorting of CUV and a return to P/Es around 40 or 50+ - which is still about the same or less than many comparison stocks (cash burning companies with no profits don't have P/Es so all their value comes from the 'hope' their pipeline may one day deliver).

Since last years great profit result CUV has been very heavily shorted each and every day on the ASX. ASIC data shows how shorters have pumped in more than 3% new open short positions in one year to bring the total open shorts about 6% in this lightly traded and tightly held stock. This is number 25 in the ASX and higher than any other Biotech, far higher than most and lumped in with many loss making companies. Clinuvel is doing better than ever right now yet thanks to extreme shorting is sitting at 5 year lows in SP and they are squarely facing a 2nd board strike in just weeks after an extremely strong 1st strike last year. I don't see how they are going to avoid that as shorters have been allowed to write the narrative for far too long and some weird communications in the past have not helped things as well as the worst run share buyback I have ever witnessed which does nothing for credibility.

So let's look at the best comparison stock to CUV in Disc Medicine. They are targeting the EPP market with their lead drug (which flunked a Phase 2 this year). That is the EPP market which Clinuvel absolutely monopolises and will monopolise for years to come yet cash burning Disc is now valued at ~$2.1 Billion AUD which is TRIPLE cash printing CUV market cap despite the possibility Disc may never achieve an FDA approval? This is strange to me because they are outperforming Clinuvel for Investment despite a much increased spend from CUV in CBM this year. I'm not sure what CUV investor relations are getting wrong here, obviously shorting is very effective but maybe they need to headhunt Disc IR experts?

Disc: Market cap $2.1 Billion (up ~50% in 3 months)
* running some phase 1 and 2s, might have a clinical pathway forward in EPP but many years off entering that market if ever
* burning through cash which is ok for this stage, recently had no trouble raising more capital at a much higher valuation than CUV.
* Nothing in pipeline near comparable to Clinuvel pipeline

CUV:Market cap $0.70 Billion (no I didn't get those two valuations mixed up, the startup is worth $1.4 Billion more than the very profitable monopoliser - and Clinuvel have about $0.2 Billion cash in that valuation)
* complete monopoly in EPP market, recent update showed potential competitors struggling and CUV perhaps picking up patients from discontinued programs and completed trials. Scenesse with remarkable 95% patient retention.
* Possible expansion of number of implants in Europe to bring in line with research findings so perhaps increase to 6 from 3 or 4 (this would be huge)
* Already treating some children for EPP, hopefully will gain label expansion after further studies
*Vitiligo Phase 3 running, slated for FDA submission 2026, drug already FDA approved and SAFE for EPP. Vitiligo TAM mentioned $4.5 BILLION USD and 9% penetration years 1-2 giving $490 - $570 Million USD. Compelling pictures of treatment shown and lots of centres ready to go if/when approved.
* Phase 2 running in mega blockbuster Stroke indication
* Phase 2 to begin this year in mega blockbuster Parkinson's Disease
* Europe Orphan Drug designation for VP and XP
* Assist DNA REPAIR - the implications of this are enormous for both pharmaceuticals (eg XP) and cosmetics
* Many years of long term safety data with an already FDA, EMA, TGA approved drug.
* Stated intention by CEO to be a 'household name by 01/01/2026 - lately softened to 2026.
* Openly talking about a tanning product, clearly a viral product if they release it and would likely give them household name status (tanning, sun protection and maybe even skin cancer preventing all in one?? sounds like a good thing - we live in hope)
* Share buyback with stated intent to redistribute capital to shareholders via this method. Clinuvel stated how the share buyback will compound their strategy of minimising share dilution with 1.5 Million shares to be repurchased. (they only have 50 Million on issue which is also pretty amazing). Only a tiny percentage of cash reserves required to fund this share buyback and they could easily extend it if required as they also mentioned.
* A tightly held and lightly traded stock, easily manipulated unfortunately compounded by some weird management decisions and waffle over the years. I see the share buyback as an opportunity to turn this around by actively supporting shareholders by restoring value but Clinuvel do not seem ready to support shareholders with this stated measure which is extremely weird (feel free to pick a better descriptive word here). Look at Cochlear; words: BUYBACK $75 Million and ACTION, $75 Million bought back on market simply and without fuss and Cochlear shareholders happy and they are about to repeat that. Clinuvel words: BUYBACK 1.5 Million shares, ACTION (4 months later) less than 50 thousand shares bought back. This needs to change, actions need to match words in support of shareholders. The pipeline is exceptional, it is time to buyback shares at large scale and get investor relations to sell the story to the right people.

All IMO DYOR