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$14.30 clinuvel pharmaceuticals limited

Disc Medicine - Best comparison stock to Clinuvel, page-94

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TheAnalyst007

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03/05/24

11:35

Post #: 73647981
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Originally posted by Silverchair: ↑

The best comparison stock to Clinuvel is Disc Medicine which just runs a few Phase 1 and 2s with their lead drug candidate targeting the modest EPP market. The Disc drug hoping to one day compete with CUV recently flunked their trial and the Disc share price took a big hit, but they are still amazingly valued much higher than CUV. I don't think Disc gets the constant attention from shorters that Clinuvel has had for 5 years but they are undoubtedly better than CUV at attracting investor interest despite being a MUCH riskier investment proposition and a much less advanced company. Hopefully the new Clinuvel US appointee can help address this imbalance because CUV are very poor in this regard and a possible simple upgrade from their current listing in the States would be a very positive move.

For comparison purposes, Disc LOST $76.4 Million USD ($116 M AUD) last year running Phase 1 and 2s, while CUV made last FY $31.6 Million PROFIT after taxes. Clinuvel already running a phase 3 into a blockbuster indication in Vitiligo which we know works and this with an already FDA, EMA approved drug that is proven safe, so the process for approval is much easier than a New Drug application which Disc will have to file if they ever get to that point. In my opinion Clinuvel will have Vitiligo approved and commercialised well before Disc can even attempt to enter the EPP market - and Disc have many big hurdles to get over before they get there. Loss making Disc makes significant losses, which is ok for this stage, but they may never even get any drug approved and they certainly don't make great profits like money-printing CUV yet they are valued at ~ $1.1 Billion AUD while CUV languishes at about $0.7 Billion (with $180M cash). Risk/reward is curious with Disc valued entirely on hope and CUV with no future cash flow valuation for Vitiligo or anything else.

The average analyst PT for Clinuvel is mid $20s just for EPP and only one analyst is pricing in Vitiligo right now and they have a PT around $50. If CUV had the same valuation as loss making and very risky Disc they would have a SP of ~$22 which is still under the average analyst PT for CUV just on EPP. With only 50 Million CUV shares on issue, and a share buyback just started that will remove 1.5 Million CUV from circulation, you would think US investor relations could make a pretty good investment thesis for CUV but they might need that pink sheet upgrade to help their case.

All IMO DYOR

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Disc makes zero revenue and burns through cash, whilst CUV prints cash and has a far bigger pipeline. Yet somehow this is valued less...

Sooner or late CUV's price will have to rerate imo. Sure things move slow, but it's significantly better than most companies.

CUV Price at posting: $15.02 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last $14.30		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $716.1M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$14.21	$14.33	$13.69	$2.607M	186.1K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	658	$14.20

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
$14.32	698	1

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	658	14.200
1	666	14.180
1	666	14.160
1	666	14.140
1	111	14.010

Price($)	Vol.	No.
14.320	698	1
14.330	666	1
14.340	1000	1
14.350	666	2
14.370	766	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 27/09/2024 (20 minute delay)

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