Disc Medicine - Best comparison stock to Clinuvel, page-99

First 99 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
J_Bee

24 Posts.

2

03/05/24

17:48

Post #: 73656964
Share

Originally posted by Silverchair: ↑

The best comparison stock to Clinuvel is Disc Medicine which just runs a few Phase 1 and 2s with their lead drug candidate targeting the modest EPP market. The Disc drug hoping to one day compete with CUV recently flunked their trial and the Disc share price took a big hit, but they are still amazingly valued much higher than CUV. I don't think Disc gets the constant attention from shorters that Clinuvel has had for 5 years but they are undoubtedly better than CUV at attracting investor interest despite being a MUCH riskier investment proposition and a much less advanced company. Hopefully the new Clinuvel US appointee can help address this imbalance because CUV are very poor in this regard and a possible simple upgrade from their current listing in the States would be a very positive move.

For comparison purposes, Disc LOST $76.4 Million USD ($116 M AUD) last year running Phase 1 and 2s, while CUV made last FY $31.6 Million PROFIT after taxes. Clinuvel already running a phase 3 into a blockbuster indication in Vitiligo which we know works and this with an already FDA, EMA approved drug that is proven safe, so the process for approval is much easier than a New Drug application which Disc will have to file if they ever get to that point. In my opinion Clinuvel will have Vitiligo approved and commercialised well before Disc can even attempt to enter the EPP market - and Disc have many big hurdles to get over before they get there. Loss making Disc makes significant losses, which is ok for this stage, but they may never even get any drug approved and they certainly don't make great profits like money-printing CUV yet they are valued at ~ $1.1 Billion AUD while CUV languishes at about $0.7 Billion (with $180M cash). Risk/reward is curious with Disc valued entirely on hope and CUV with no future cash flow valuation for Vitiligo or anything else.

The average analyst PT for Clinuvel is mid $20s just for EPP and only one analyst is pricing in Vitiligo right now and they have a PT around $50. If CUV had the same valuation as loss making and very risky Disc they would have a SP of ~$22 which is still under the average analyst PT for CUV just on EPP. With only 50 Million CUV shares on issue, and a share buyback just started that will remove 1.5 Million CUV from circulation, you would think US investor relations could make a pretty good investment thesis for CUV but they might need that pink sheet upgrade to help their case.

All IMO DYOR

Expand

Hi, Silverchair. You’ve mentioned a couple of times that an analyst has CUV at AU$50 if they get approval for vitiligo. Is that based solely on approval or the first 2 years of vitiligo revenue plus existing EPP revenue?Either way it seems pretty low if Clinuvel’s projections for vitiligo are realistic.

CUV Price at posting: $14.86 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

WMG

Western Mines identifies 2 high-grade zones at Mulga Tank in WA

WR1

Winsome scoping study proposes low-cost operation for Adina lithium project

ALR

Altair Minerals hits high-grade copper and gold at Wee MacGregor, QLD

SNG

Siren Gold boosts antimony resource by 66% to 14.5Kt at Auld Creek, NZ

PTR

Petratherm adds $1.6 to the piggybank ahead of SA titanium drilling program

There are more pages in this discussion • 47 more messages in this thread...

First 99 Last

Add CUV (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last $15.16		Change 0.090(0.60%)		Mkt cap ! $759.1M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$15.12	$15.44	$15.02	$1.063M	70.10K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	126	$15.14

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$15.27	764	3

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	126	15.140
1	495	15.120
1	282	15.080
1	282	15.050
1	282	15.020

Price($)	Vol.	No.
15.270	764	3
15.290	282	1
15.320	282	1
15.350	357	2
15.400	1349	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 17/09/2024 (20 minute delay)

CUV (ASX) Chart

Disc Medicine - Best comparison stock to Clinuvel, page-99

Western Mines identifies 2 high-grade zones at Mulga Tank in WA

Winsome scoping study proposes low-cost operation for Adina lithium project

Altair Minerals hits high-grade copper and gold at Wee MacGregor, QLD

Siren Gold boosts antimony resource by 66% to 14.5Kt at Auld Creek, NZ

Petratherm adds $1.6 to the piggybank ahead of SA titanium drilling program

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Disc Medicine - Best comparison stock to Clinuvel, page-99

Top Stories

Western Mines identifies 2 high-grade zones at Mulga Tank in WA

Winsome scoping study proposes low-cost operation for Adina lithium project

Altair Minerals hits high-grade copper and gold at Wee MacGregor, QLD

Siren Gold boosts antimony resource by 66% to 14.5Kt at Auld Creek, NZ

Petratherm adds $1.6 to the piggybank ahead of SA titanium drilling program

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News