Disclaimer - Monday, page-3

Strong Week. So? Weekly Report. Week ending 9 October, 2015.

CONTENT

1. Australian Market: Weekly Performance Chart
2. Global Performance: Weekly Chart
3. Australian Market. XJO - Monthly, Weekly, Daily Charts.
4. ASX 100 - Stock Ratings
5. America - Daily.
6. America and Commodities
7. Summing up.
8. Appendix - Complete ratings for all ASX100 stocks.

AUSTRALIAN MARKET: SECTOR PERFORMANCES IN THE PAST WEEK.

Clearly, something major happened in the Australian market this week. The mangy dogs (Miners and Energy) turned into Grey Hounds. XMM +13.5%. XEJ 14.6%.

The broad market index for Australia (XAO) rose very strongly this week +4.3%. All ten S&P Sectors were positive. Financials 4.2% - just about line ball with the XAO. For a change, 50 Leaders (XFL) out-performed the Mid-Cap 50 (XMD).

Telecoms was the worst performer +4.6%, with Property just a little ahead, 0.68%. These are both areas where the dividend hunters like to plonk their money. Not much interest from them this week.

AUSTRALIAN MARKET: SECTOR RATINGS Medium and Long Term.


This chart takes a medium term and long term view of the various sectors, while the Weekly Performance Chart above takes a short term view. Out-performance occurs when the medium term bar is above the long term bar, and the medium term bar is above zero. These I've labelled "rocket" performers. The Sectors are: Materials, Consumer Staples and Energy. (XMM is a sub-industry index of the XMJ.) XSJ (Consumer Staples) is the surprise inclusion in this group - but it is clearly not in the same class of performance as Materials and Energy. (But it is worth taking a look at Metcash - see below.)

Ratings are based on performance compared to the ASX200 over the past 52 Days (Medium Term) and 52 Weeks (Long Term).

Gold Miners Index has been the hot screamer for a long time, the fact that it's medium term performance is now lagging its long term performance a little, suggests that its future performance could be in doubt.
Avoid stocks which are below the zero line on a medium term basis.


GLOBAL PERFORMANCE – WEEKLY



Australia's performance was no isolated case. The big up move in Australia was part of a coordinated global move with all major indices moving up strongly. EEM was the best performer which is a big plus, as the performance of the Emerging Markets has been a concern for all world markets.

AUSTRALIAN MARKET: XJO - Monthly, Weekly, Daily.









The XJO has bounced off Major Support.

By looking at the Dynamic Zone Stochastic in each chart - we can see the state of the trend for all three time frames.

Long term (monthly chart) DZS is still pointing down - we have a long term down trend.

Medium term (weekly chart) DZS has flattened out and turned up just a little. The medium term trend is undecided.

Short term (daily chart) DZS is in over-bought territory. So we have a strong short term up trend which now suggests the market might take a rest or pull-back.

Until we get all three DZS's in sync, we have to presume that the market is vulnerable to shocks and may revert to bearish conditions.

ASX 100 - STOCK RATINGS.

For the sake of clarity in the following charts, I've broken the Stock Ratings Charts for the 100 ASX Leaders into three alphabetical groupings. I've made notes on the "Rocket" stocks. I've marked these with a circle. These are stocks where the Medium Term Relative Strength is higher than the Long term Relative Strength. Many of these stocks are now overbought and will probably pull-back. Avoid any of these if the MACD Histogram falls below Zero when (if) they pull back. Many of the stocks in the following lists are still below their 200-Day MA. Enter with caution.

I've marked in BOLD stocks that are above 1 on the RS. These are major out-performers.

(These notes are my personal diary notes that I'm sharing - I suggest you do your own research.)

First - Stocks A-B (18 stocks)



"Rocket" performers in this group are:

1. ALQ, Medium Term RS +0.8482. It is overbought (RSI.9 - 74.3). Wait for a pull-back and bounce.
2. BHP, Medium Term RS +0.3728 but coming off a very low base. It is overbought (RSI.9 - 71.7). Wait for a pull-back and bounce.
3. BSL, Medium Term RS +0.2043. This is a "buy". Exit if it falls below Friday's low - at 3.89. Closed on Friday at 4.01.

Other stocks with arrows are in strong short term up trends. They are all still below the Zero line on the Medium Term Trend Bar. Do your own research. Enter with caution.

Stocks C-O (46 Stocks)



"Rocket" performers in this group are:

1. CCL, Medium Term RS +0.2696. Watch. Coming down from overbought. If it bounces soon - it could be a "buy".
2. DOW, Medium Term RS +0.2612 but coming off a very low base. Formed a triple bottom. It is overbought on a number of indicators. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.
3. DUE, Medium Term RS +0.3129. Overbought. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.
4. FLT. Medium Term RS +0.77. Overbought. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.
5. MTS. Medium Term RS +1.4419. One of the recent Top Performers. Coming up to the 200-Day MA. Seriously Overbought. Wait for the pull-back and bounce.
6. NVT. Medium Term RS +0.2028. Mildly overbought. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.
7. NAB. Medium Term RS +0.0304. Best of the big banks. Just snuck over the Zero line on the MT RS. Probably better value elsewhere.
8. ORI. Medium Term RS +0.5011. Overbought. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.

Other stocks with arrows are in strong short term up trends. They are all still below the Zero line on the Medium Term Trend Bar. Do your own research. Enter with caution.

Stocks O-W (33 Stocks)



"Rocket" performers in this group are:

1. OSH, Medium Term RS +0.6749. Possible take-over target. Avoid unless you're an expert in such matters.
2. Rio, Medium Term RS +0.7836. Seriously overbought. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.
3. STO, Medium Term RS +1.1409. Seriously Overbought. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.
4. TPI. Medium Term RS +0.1647. Pulled back from Overbought. Watch for a break higher.
5. WOR. Medium Term RS +0.4216. Overbought. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.
6. WOW. Medium Term RS +0.1341. Overbought. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.
7. WPL. Medium Term RS +0.3298. Double bottom formed now Overbought. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.

Other stocks with arrows are in strong short term up trends. They are all still below the Zero line on the Medium Term Trend Bar. Do your own research. Enter with caution.

Of the ASX100, 77% are above the Zero Line on the Detrended Price Oscillator (Zero being the line between bearish and bullish). DPO is a medium-term indicator. That's a big improvement over the 47% recorded the previous week.

30.6% are above the 200-Day MA. The 200-Day MA is a long-term indicator and is the demarcation line between bull and bear markets.. That's not much of an improvement in the long term picture. So we can presume we have a counter trend rally in place at this time. Until we have 50% of the stocks above the 200-Day MA - we are still in a bear market.

Four stocks recorded new 52-Week Highs this week. The previous week, six stocks recorded new 52-Week Highs. 3 stocks recorded new 52-Week Lows this week. That's a big change from the 23 Stocks that made new 52.Week Lows in the previous week. That gives us a new H/L Ratio of 57%. That suggests we are experiencing bullish pressure.


AMERICA - SP500 DAILY.

Here's the daily Chart for the SP500:



The Index has bounced sharply upwards and is now testing the intra-day high of 17 September. That was a high volume event. High volume highs often get tested and the test fails.

The Index is mildly overbought. Stochastic at 97 (above 80 is overbought, and RSI.9 at 67.7 (above 70 is overbought).

DPO is at its highest level for many, many months.

MFI is showing a possible negative divergence. So the possibilities swing a little bit to the downside.

AMERICA - BASE METALS



This week we've seen a dramatic swing to the upside in Australian Mining and Energy stocks. There is naturally a high correlation between the prices of these stocks and the prices for Base Metals, Oil and Natural Gas.

Above is a weekly chart for Base Metals.

DBB (Base Metals) is in a steep down trend - a secular bear market.

Recently it became extremely oversold. RSI.9 was at 13.9 and Stochastic at 0.7. Below 30 on the RSI is very oversold. Below 20 is oversold on Stochastic, below 10 is very oversold. We haven't seen figures like that in the past four years. So it is no wonder that we're now seeing something like a rally - probably a counter-trend rally.

In no way can we say that Base Metals (DBB) is now in an uptrend.

Looking at the Standard Error Channel we can see that DBB had hit the lower supporting edge of the SEC. That's too low. So we could expect a move away from that level.

All we can say at this stage is that DBB is in a counter-trend rally. We could have several more weeks of upside in DBB. But - until proven otherwise, the long term trend is down.

Counter-trend rallies can be very profitable to experienced traders. Good luck if you are one of those.

Summing up:

World markets experienced a coordinated move to the upside. Movements up were extremely positive.

The current correction may be over.

The American SP500 is now testing the high volume high of 17 September. The Index is overbought so a pull-back is probable. The extent of the pull-back, if it happens, is likely to decide whether or not we have a new up trend or a resumption of the basing action we've seen in place since mid-August.

The Australian market is in a short term uptrend. It also is at least mildly overbought.

The resurgence in the Australian market has been led by extra-ordinary gains in Mining and Energy Stocks. Those Indices are now overbought and likely to pull-back.

The Chart for Base Metals, which is in a secular bear market, is now in a counter-trend rally. It was extremely oversold - at levels not seen in the past four years. So some sort of counter-trend rally is not to be unexpected. There could be further upside in this rally (with ups and downs in shorter time frames.) But - until proven otherwise - this is still a secular bear market for Metals and Energy.

I expect some more downside in the next few days. Let's see how we go after that.

RB

APPENDIX

Below are relative strength ratings and other information on the 100-Leaders (ASX100).

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6
0	New Highs & New Lows	Stock	RS Daily	RS Weekly	DPO	200 MA
1		AGL	-0.1098	1.4475	Pos	Yes
2		AIO	0.0877	2.9602	Pos	Yes
3	52 Week high	ALL	0.6059	2.5056	Pos	Yes
4		ALQ	0.8482	0.7446	Pos	No
5		AMC	0.1516	0.3924	Pos	No
6		AMP	-0.2949	0.0371	Neg	No
7	52 Week Low	ANN	-1.3544	-1.7796	Neg	No
8		ANZ	-0.1205	-0.7603	Neg	No
9		APA	0.496	1.2438	Pos	No
10		AST	0.5253	0.739	Pos	No
11		ASX	-0.2534	0.3556	Pos	No
12		AWC	-0.1003	-1.6914	Pos	No
13		AZJ	0.0122	0.9293	Pos	Yes
14		BEN	-0.5348	-1.1084	Pos	No
15		BHP	0.3728	-0.7594	Pos	No
16		BLD	-1.055	-0.4043	Neg	No
17		BOQ	0.1618	0.4262	Pos	No
18		BSL	0.2043	-0.2885	Neg	Yes
19		BXB	0.0539	0.1269	Pos	No
20		CAR	-0.0272	0.2403	Pos	No
21		CBA	-0.2631	-0.603	Pos	No
22		CCL	0.2969	0.1222	Pos	No
23	52 Week High	CGF	0.3388	0.3892	Pos	Yes
24	52 Week High	CIM	0.7557	2.1066	Pos	Yes
25		COH	-0.1126	0.7819	Pos	No
26		CPU	0.007	-0.5748	Pos	No
27		CSL	-0.1818	0.7529	Pos	No
28	52 Week Low	CSR	-1.3325	-2.0056	Neg	No
29		CTX	0.4379	0.6077	Pos	No
30		CWN	-0.1916	-0.7828	Pos	No
31		DLX	-0.3014	-0.2029	Neg	No
32		DMP	0.0577	2.5949	Pos	Yes
33		DOW	0.2612	-0.9556	Pos	No
34		DUE	0.3129	-0.1915	Pos	No
35		DXS	-0.2016	1.2335	Pos	No
36		EGP	-0.1144	1.7468	Pos	Yes
37		FDC	-0.0988	-0.0257	Pos	No
38		FLT	0.77	0.4703	Pos	No
39		FMG	0.1399	0.3675	Pos	Yes
40		FXJ	0.7693	1.0968	Pos	Yes
41		GMG	-0.3444	0.1245	Pos	No
42		GNC	0.7477	0.9215	Pos	Yes
43		GPT	0.0796	0.8627	Pos	Yes
44		HGG	0.0008	1.9698	Pos	Yes
45		HSO	-0.318	-0.0334	Neg	No
46		HVN	-0.6834	-0.1721	Neg	No
47		IAG	-0.2855	-0.8101	Pos	No
48		IFL	-0.2259	-0.2297	Neg	No
49		ILU	0.109	0.2544	Pos	No
50		IOF	0.1358	0.8317	Pos	yes
51		IPL	0.9467	1.6683	Pos	Yes
52		JBH	-0.3632	0.7611	Pos	No
53		JHX	-0.3015	1.894	Neg	Yes
54		LLC	-0.8041	-1.4131	Neg	No
55		MFG	0.8875	2.0659	Pos	Yes
56		MGR	-0.3284	-0.3811	Pos	No
57		MPL	0.9469		Pos	Yes
58		MQG	0.3522	1.7276	Pos	Yes
59		MTS	1.4419	-1.399	Pos	No
60		NAB	0.0304	-0.2747	Pos	No
61		NCM	2.1819	2.2991	Yes	Yes
62		NVT	0.2028	-0.6086	Pos	No
63		ORA	0.405	1.8685	Pos	Yes
64		ORG	-2.3052	-3.9883	Neg	No
65		ORI	0.5011	-0.639	Pos	No
66		OSH	0.6794	0.4963	Pos	Yes
67		PPT	-0.2818	-1.2233	Neg	No
68	52 Week Low	PRY	-1.114	-1.734	Neg	No
69		QAN	-0.1615	2.9352	Pos	Yes
70		QBE	-0.3348	0.769	Pos	No
71		REA	0.5267	0.8428	Pos	Yes
72		REC	0.7698	1.3958	Pos	Yes
73		RHC	-0.293	0.3919	Neg	No
74		RIO	0.7836	0.2937	Pos	No
75		RMD	0.0687	0.4327	Pos	No
76		S32	-0.1627		Neg	No
77		SCG	0.1846	1.4039	Pos	Yes
78		SGH	-0.0482	-4.307	Pos	No
79		SGM	-0.041	-0.1431	Neg	No
80		SGP	-0.3735	-0.4807	Pos	No
81		SHL	-0.8324	-0.2175	Neg	No
82		SKI	0.21	0.3677	Pos	No
83		STO	1.1409	-2.105	Pos	No
84		SUN	-0.251	-0.3031	Pos	No
85		SYD	0.1502	1.9797	Pos	Yes
86		TAH	0.216	1.0276	Pos	Yes
87		TCL	-0.0307	1.107	Pos	Yes
88		TLS	-0.4701	-0.2426	Neg	No
89		TPI	0.1496	-0.8412	Pos	No
90		TPM	1	3.4256	Pos	Yes
91		TTS	0.3451	0.9189	Pos	No
92	52 Week High	TWE	0.8508	3.1861	Pos	Yes
93		WBC	-0.2328	-0.4906	Neg	No
94		WES	-0.058	0.0034	Pos	No
95		WFD	0.1131	1.1883	Pos	Yes
96		WOR	0.4216	-1.9326	Pos	No
97		WOW	0.1341	-0.4574	Pos	No
98		WPL	0.3928	-0.2503	Neg	No