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piotrvip

3,195 Posts.

11/10/15

23:23

Post #: 16155113

Originally posted by redbacka ↑

Strong Week. So? Weekly Report. Week ending 9 October, 2015.

CONTENT

Australian Market: Weekly Performance Chart

Global Performance: Weekly Chart

Australian Market. XJO - Monthly, Weekly, Daily Charts.

ASX 100 - Stock Ratings

America - Daily.

America and Commodities

Summing up.

Appendix - Complete ratings for all ASX100 stocks.

AUSTRALIAN MARKET: SECTOR PERFORMANCES IN THE PAST WEEK.

Clearly, something major happened in the Australian market this week. The mangy dogs (Miners and Energy) turned into Grey Hounds. XMM +13.5%. XEJ 14.6%.

The broad market index for Australia (XAO) rose very strongly this week +4.3%. All ten S&P Sectors were positive. Financials 4.2% - just about line ball with the XAO. For a change, 50 Leaders (XFL) out-performed the Mid-Cap 50 (XMD).

Telecoms was the worst performer +4.6%, with Property just a little ahead, 0.68%. These are both areas where the dividend hunters like to plonk their money. Not much interest from them this week.

AUSTRALIAN MARKET: SECTOR RATINGS Medium and Long Term.

This chart takes a medium term and long term view of the various sectors, while the Weekly Performance Chart above takes a short term view. Out-performance occurs when the medium term bar is above the long term bar, and the medium term bar is above zero. These I've labelled "rocket" performers. The Sectors are: Materials, Consumer Staples and Energy. (XMM is a sub-industry index of the XMJ.) XSJ (Consumer Staples) is the surprise inclusion in this group - but it is clearly not in the same class of performance as Materials and Energy. (But it is worth taking a look at Metcash - see below.)

Ratings are based on performance compared to the ASX200 over the past 52 Days (Medium Term) and 52 Weeks (Long Term).

Gold Miners Index has been the hot screamer for a long time, the fact that it's medium term performance is now lagging its long term performance a little, suggests that its future performance could be in doubt.
Avoid stocks which are below the zero line on a medium term basis.

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE – WEEKLY

Australia's performance was no isolated case. The big up move in Australia was part of a coordinated global move with all major indices moving up strongly. EEM was the best performer which is a big plus, as the performance of the Emerging Markets has been a concern for all world markets.

AUSTRALIAN MARKET: XJO - Monthly, Weekly, Daily.

The XJO has bounced off Major Support.

By looking at the Dynamic Zone Stochastic in each chart - we can see the state of the trend for all three time frames.

Long term (monthly chart) DZS is still pointing down - we have a long term down trend.

Medium term (weekly chart) DZS has flattened out and turned up just a little. The medium term trend is undecided.

Short term (daily chart) DZS is in over-bought territory. So we have a strong short term up trend which now suggests the market might take a rest or pull-back.

Until we get all three DZS's in sync, we have to presume that the market is vulnerable to shocks and may revert to bearish conditions.

ASX 100 - STOCK RATINGS.

For the sake of clarity in the following charts, I've broken the Stock Ratings Charts for the 100 ASX Leaders into three alphabetical groupings. I've made notes on the "Rocket" stocks. I've marked these with a circle. These are stocks where the Medium Term Relative Strength is higher than the Long term Relative Strength. Many of these stocks are now overbought and will probably pull-back. Avoid any of these if the MACD Histogram falls below Zero when (if) they pull back. Many of the stocks in the following lists are still below their 200-Day MA. Enter with caution.

I've marked in BOLD stocks that are above 1 on the RS. These are major out-performers.

(These notes are my personal diary notes that I'm sharing - I suggest you do your own research.)

First - Stocks A-B (18 stocks)

"Rocket" performers in this group are:

ALQ, Medium Term RS +0.8482. It is overbought (RSI.9 - 74.3). Wait for a pull-back and bounce.

BHP, Medium Term RS +0.3728 but coming off a very low base. It is overbought (RSI.9 - 71.7). Wait for a pull-back and bounce.

BSL, Medium Term RS +0.2043. This is a "buy". Exit if it falls below Friday's low - at 3.89. Closed on Friday at 4.01.

Other stocks with arrows are in strong short term up trends. They are all still below the Zero line on the Medium Term Trend Bar. Do your own research. Enter with caution.

Stocks C-O (46 Stocks)

"Rocket" performers in this group are:

CCL, Medium Term RS +0.2696. Watch. Coming down from overbought. If it bounces soon - it could be a "buy".

DOW, Medium Term RS +0.2612 but coming off a very low base. Formed a triple bottom. It is overbought on a number of indicators. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.

DUE, Medium Term RS +0.3129. Overbought. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.

FLT. Medium Term RS +0.77. Overbought. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.

MTS. Medium Term RS +1.4419. One of the recent Top Performers. Coming up to the 200-Day MA. Seriously Overbought. Wait for the pull-back and bounce.

NVT. Medium Term RS +0.2028. Mildly overbought. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.

NAB. Medium Term RS +0.0304. Best of the big banks. Just snuck over the Zero line on the MT RS. Probably better value elsewhere.

ORI. Medium Term RS +0.5011. Overbought. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.

Other stocks with arrows are in strong short term up trends. They are all still below the Zero line on the Medium Term Trend Bar. Do your own research. Enter with caution.

Stocks O-W (33 Stocks)

"Rocket" performers in this group are:

OSH, Medium Term RS +0.6749. Possible take-over target. Avoid unless you're an expert in such matters.

Rio, Medium Term RS +0.7836. Seriously overbought. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.

STO, Medium Term RS +1.1409. Seriously Overbought. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.

TPI. Medium Term RS +0.1647. Pulled back from Overbought. Watch for a break higher.

WOR. Medium Term RS +0.4216. Overbought. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.

WOW. Medium Term RS +0.1341. Overbought. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.

WPL. Medium Term RS +0.3298. Double bottom formed now Overbought. Buy on a pull-back and bounce.

Other stocks with arrows are in strong short term up trends. They are all still below the Zero line on the Medium Term Trend Bar. Do your own research. Enter with caution.

Of the ASX100, 77% are above the Zero Line on the Detrended Price Oscillator (Zero being the line between bearish and bullish). DPO is a medium-term indicator. That's a big improvement over the 47% recorded the previous week.

30.6% are above the 200-Day MA. The 200-Day MA is a long-term indicator and is the demarcation line between bull and bear markets.. That's not much of an improvement in the long term picture. So we can presume we have a counter trend rally in place at this time. Until we have 50% of the stocks above the 200-Day MA - we are still in a bear market.

Four stocks recorded new 52-Week Highs this week. The previous week, six stocks recorded new 52-Week Highs. 3 stocks recorded new 52-Week Lows this week. That's a big change from the 23 Stocks that made new 52.Week Lows in the previous week. That gives us a new H/L Ratio of 57%. That suggests we are experiencing bullish pressure.

AMERICA - SP500 DAILY.

Here's the daily Chart for the SP500:

The Index has bounced sharply upwards and is now testing the intra-day high of 17 September. That was a high volume event. High volume highs often get tested and the test fails.

The Index is mildly overbought. Stochastic at 97 (above 80 is overbought, and RSI.9 at 67.7 (above 70 is overbought).

DPO is at its highest level for many, many months.

MFI is showing a possible negative divergence. So the possibilities swing a little bit to the downside.

AMERICA - BASE METALS

This week we've seen a dramatic swing to the upside in Australian Mining and Energy stocks. There is naturally a high correlation between the prices of these stocks and the prices for Base Metals, Oil and Natural Gas.

Above is a weekly chart for Base Metals.

DBB (Base Metals) is in a steep down trend - a secular bear market.

Recently it became extremely oversold. RSI.9 was at 13.9 and Stochastic at 0.7. Below 30 on the RSI is very oversold. Below 20 is oversold on Stochastic, below 10 is very oversold. We haven't seen figures like that in the past four years. So it is no wonder that we're now seeing something like a rally - probably a counter-trend rally.

In no way can we say that Base Metals (DBB) is now in an uptrend.

Looking at the Standard Error Channel we can see that DBB had hit the lower supporting edge of the SEC. That's too low. So we could expect a move away from that level.

All we can say at this stage is that DBB is in a counter-trend rally. We could have several more weeks of upside in DBB. But - until proven otherwise, the long term trend is down.

Counter-trend rallies can be very profitable to experienced traders. Good luck if you are one of those.

Summing up:

World markets experienced a coordinated move to the upside. Movements up were extremely positive.

The current correction may be over.

The American SP500 is now testing the high volume high of 17 September. The Index is overbought so a pull-back is probable. The extent of the pull-back, if it happens, is likely to decide whether or not we have a new up trend or a resumption of the basing action we've seen in place since mid-August.

The Australian market is in a short term uptrend. It also is at least mildly overbought.

The resurgence in the Australian market has been led by extra-ordinary gains in Mining and Energy Stocks. Those Indices are now overbought and likely to pull-back.

The Chart for Base Metals, which is in a secular bear market, is now in a counter-trend rally. It was extremely oversold - at levels not seen in the past four years. So some sort of counter-trend rally is not to be unexpected. There could be further upside in this rally (with ups and downs in shorter time frames.) But - until proven otherwise - this is still a secular bear market for Metals and Energy.

I expect some more downside in the next few days. Let's see how we go after that.

RB

APPENDIX

Below are relative strength ratings and other information on the 100-Leaders (ASX100).

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6

1 New Highs & New Lows Stock RS Daily RS Weekly DPO 200 MA

2 AGL -0.1098 1.4475 Pos Yes

3 AIO 0.0877 2.9602 Pos Yes

4 52 Week high ALL 0.6059 2.5056 Pos Yes

5 ALQ 0.8482 0.7446 Pos No

6 AMC 0.1516 0.3924 Pos No

7 AMP -0.2949 0.0371 Neg No

8 52 Week Low ANN -1.3544 -1.7796 Neg No

9 ANZ -0.1205 -0.7603 Neg No

10 APA 0.496 1.2438 Pos No

11 AST 0.5253 0.739 Pos No

12 ASX -0.2534 0.3556 Pos No

13 AWC -0.1003 -1.6914 Pos No

14 AZJ 0.0122 0.9293 Pos Yes

15 BEN -0.5348 -1.1084 Pos No

16 BHP 0.3728 -0.7594 Pos No

17 BLD -1.055 -0.4043 Neg No

18 BOQ 0.1618 0.4262 Pos No

19 BSL 0.2043 -0.2885 Neg Yes

20 BXB 0.0539 0.1269 Pos No

21 CAR -0.0272 0.2403 Pos No

22 CBA -0.2631 -0.603 Pos No

23 CCL 0.2969 0.1222 Pos No

24 52 Week High CGF 0.3388 0.3892 Pos Yes

25 52 Week High CIM 0.7557 2.1066 Pos Yes

26 COH -0.1126 0.7819 Pos No

27 CPU 0.007 -0.5748 Pos No

28 CSL -0.1818 0.7529 Pos No

29 52 Week Low CSR -1.3325 -2.0056 Neg No

30 CTX 0.4379 0.6077 Pos No

31 CWN -0.1916 -0.7828 Pos No

32 DLX -0.3014 -0.2029 Neg No

33 DMP 0.0577 2.5949 Pos Yes

34 DOW 0.2612 -0.9556 Pos No

35 DUE 0.3129 -0.1915 Pos No

36 DXS -0.2016 1.2335 Pos No

37 EGP -0.1144 1.7468 Pos Yes

38 FDC -0.0988 -0.0257 Pos No

39 FLT 0.77 0.4703 Pos No

40 FMG 0.1399 0.3675 Pos Yes

41 FXJ 0.7693 1.0968 Pos Yes

42 GMG -0.3444 0.1245 Pos No

43 GNC 0.7477 0.9215 Pos Yes

44 GPT 0.0796 0.8627 Pos Yes

45 HGG 0.0008 1.9698 Pos Yes

46 HSO -0.318 -0.0334 Neg No

47 HVN -0.6834 -0.1721 Neg No

48 IAG -0.2855 -0.8101 Pos No

49 IFL -0.2259 -0.2297 Neg No

50 ILU 0.109 0.2544 Pos No

51 IOF 0.1358 0.8317 Pos yes

52 IPL 0.9467 1.6683 Pos Yes

53 JBH -0.3632 0.7611 Pos No

54 JHX -0.3015 1.894 Neg Yes

55 LLC -0.8041 -1.4131 Neg No

56 MFG 0.8875 2.0659 Pos Yes

57 MGR -0.3284 -0.3811 Pos No

58 MPL 0.9469 Pos Yes

59 MQG 0.3522 1.7276 Pos Yes

60 MTS 1.4419 -1.399 Pos No

61 NAB 0.0304 -0.2747 Pos No

62 NCM 2.1819 2.2991 Yes Yes

63 NVT 0.2028 -0.6086 Pos No

64 ORA 0.405 1.8685 Pos Yes

65 ORG -2.3052 -3.9883 Neg No

66 ORI 0.5011 -0.639 Pos No

67 OSH 0.6794 0.4963 Pos Yes

68 PPT -0.2818 -1.2233 Neg No

69 52 Week Low PRY -1.114 -1.734 Neg No

70 QAN -0.1615 2.9352 Pos Yes

71 QBE -0.3348 0.769 Pos No

72 REA 0.5267 0.8428 Pos Yes

73 REC 0.7698 1.3958 Pos Yes

74 RHC -0.293 0.3919 Neg No

75 RIO 0.7836 0.2937 Pos No

76 RMD 0.0687 0.4327 Pos No

77 S32 -0.1627 Neg No

78 SCG 0.1846 1.4039 Pos Yes

79 SGH -0.0482 -4.307 Pos No

80 SGM -0.041 -0.1431 Neg No

81 SGP -0.3735 -0.4807 Pos No

82 SHL -0.8324 -0.2175 Neg No

83 SKI 0.21 0.3677 Pos No

84 STO 1.1409 -2.105 Pos No

85 SUN -0.251 -0.3031 Pos No

86 SYD 0.1502 1.9797 Pos Yes

87 TAH 0.216 1.0276 Pos Yes

88 TCL -0.0307 1.107 Pos Yes

89 TLS -0.4701 -0.2426 Neg No

90 TPI 0.1496 -0.8412 Pos No

91 TPM 1 3.4256 Pos Yes

92 TTS 0.3451 0.9189 Pos No

93 52 Week High TWE 0.8508 3.1861 Pos Yes

94 WBC -0.2328 -0.4906 Neg No

95 WES -0.058 0.0034 Pos No

96 WFD 0.1131 1.1883 Pos Yes

97 WOR 0.4216 -1.9326 Pos No

98 WOW 0.1341 -0.4574 Pos No

99 WPL 0.3928 -0.2503 Neg No

Expand

And there we have it

Many thanks for the effort you put in, very much appreciated

PIOTR

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