Yes. Obviously the value is very dependent on assumptions around cola price and xrate. The table below is my estimate based on the following assumptions: * Production = 11 million tonnes p.a. * Cash cost FOB = AU$57.50/tn * Capex = $60m p.a. * Corporate costs = $16m p.a. * Lease costs = $13m p.a. * 15 years production (noting Bengalla license stretches about 18 years 20 2039), no terminal value, 10% discount rate This assumes no contribution or cost related to Acland. so it is effectively Bengalla only. Note: long run average coal price is US$82/tonne and xrate about 0.84. That gives about $1.70-1.80/share, approx where it is currently trading. However if you believe current prices will persist, the valuation increases very quickly.
NHC NPV ($/share)
Coal Price ($US/tn)
1.74
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Xrate (AUD/USD)
1.00
0.18
0.74
1.31
1.87
2.43
3.00
3.56
0.90
0.62
1.24
1.87
2.49
3.12
3.75
4.37
0.80
1.17
1.87
2.57
3.28
3.98
4.68
5.39
0.70
1.87
2.67
3.48
4.28
5.09
5.89
6.69
0.60
2.81
3.75
4.68
5.62
6.56
7.50
8.44
NHC Price at posting:
$1.81 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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