Oz - my thinking is ...$2.40 was the bottom offer price for a...

Oz - my thinking is ...

$2.40 was the bottom offer price for a reason, and is still on the table - hence the pressure to keep it near here. I think this is tied to the carbon trading stuff.

$2.80 was the 'carbon trading going ENE's way' price. Hence what they had to put on the table to work with.

Price movements now are around the sentiment to the govt moves on this ... i.e. it drops when Turnbull looks like he's going to roll over (but he did say with ammendments and I'd guess we'd get a result with that side of things).

So what to do -

* Nerves of steel = average up (I have below $2.38)
* Trader = play the range

Would suggest that even @ $2.40 there is minimal medium term risk here (definately some short term) ... if Archer pull out the euro offer will keep a full breakup on the table.

Not sure if the ASX rising or falling is a bad thing ... fund managers were looking to this deal to fix up there other stuff ups, may be more willing to let it happen if things keep moving up ... or they might get greedy (most likely - think of QAN).