Key questions in relation to size and grade to ask are;
1] How many potential tonnes of rock are there?
2] What is the gross $dollar value of the copper contained in each tonne of rock?
Look below for potential tonnage and valuation. I will then compare it to the relative stock price of the company. It gives us an idea of what VOR has to offer with their current drilling program.
Any questions please feel free to ask.
-----------------
Volume, Density and Tonnage estimation
The objective here is to convert the different types of reporting into a dollar amount for the rock unit mined.
A strike covering 4.6km x 1.6km @ 700m depth looks very promising considering the spectacular drill intercepts and the location in southern regions of Mongolia.
4600m X 1600m X 200m* = 1,472,000,000 cubic metres [Volume]
1,472,000,000m X specific gravity = 1,472,000,000 X 3.60
= 5.2992 Billion tonnes of rock
I will utilise 10% of their total volume block as the tonnage to be conservative. Deposits are rarely the size of their anomalies.
As such, tonnage will be 529.92 Million Tonnes of rock
* 200m depth used instead of the 700m currently being drilled by VOR's 4 rigs
=============
Therefore, potential deposit reported in metric = 382.7 Million Tonnes @ 1.5% Cu / copper at $2.00 per pound
Estimation of in-place grade - 1.5% of Cu
2204 lbs in one metric ton X 0.015 grade = 33.06 lb
That's $66.12 rock! That is, each ton of rock gives $66.12 of Cu [33.06 lb X $2.00 lb base case]
Therefore, GROSS METAL VALUE of the potential deposit;
529.92 Million Tonnes X $66.12 = $35.04 Billion dollars
=============
Shares currently on issue = 1.01 Billion shares
In ground value = $35.04 billion dollars
Estimate value per share = Approx $34 per share on gross metal value
=============
Please note from the above that the CAPEX and OPEX costs for a porphyry mining operation are extremely high and this is why most majors and financiers need to see an extensive mineralisation structure before funding. However, if VOR can get their head grade and intercepts consistent along their strike and at depth, then one can see that the current share price is a joke.
Note also that i utilised the following;
- Head grade of just 1.5% copper
- 10% of total copper strike
- Copper base price of $2 lb instead of current $4 lb
- Depth of deposit at 200m instead of the 700m drilling
=============
The above is just my opinion and calculations on VOR's POTENTIAL and should not be construed as ADVICE OF ANY SORT. It is a GROSS METAL VALUE CALCULATION based on factors present but will obviously change during the course of their drilling campaign.
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