EV is sub $180m here on conservative vals for CYM and NC1.
If you assume AIC goes to A$20k with capex rolling off and moving into higher grade that gives us our starting point to solve from.
With tin at US$30k and A$ at 69c that means we should clear around A$20k on 5.5kt of tin = A$110m, so 1.65x
If tin drops to US$25k (given producers already closing this seems like it would be a fair lower bound) then we are talking maybe A$12k over 5.5kt of tin or A$66m. So 2.75x
If you want a margin of safety call these 2x and 3x.
Think this valuation stands even on that downside case. Upside is clear.
I am not saying this can't or won't go lower. But the R/R pretty favorable.
MLX Price at posting:
35.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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