MLX metals x limited

1.80%

54.5¢

For AISC to be 20k/t or in that area I believe we need 4...

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104 Posts.

141

08/07/22

19:30

Post #: 62449504
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Originally posted by wb200: ↑

Shanghai tin market is still very soggy. Simply cannot get itself above the CNY200k/t level. Think that's what's really weighing down on the market and MLX. So, my simple back-of-the-envelope calculation for MLX sees tin @ US$25k/t (that is about A$36.5k/t at current FX) and eventually AISC @ A$20k/t. At 5,500t a year that generates about A$90mn. If you want to be really pessimistic you can do the same calc with tin @ US$20k/t. That gets you about A$52mn a year, and arguably that is what the market is pricing in now if you apply a 6x P/E multiple. Medium to long term I don't think this is right, but then we could be facing a very difficult 12 months in the global economy. Some form of a recession is almost a certainty. And this time policy makers are out of bullets to engineer a quick turnaround.

All I'm hoping for is that management is prudent, keeps most of the cash in reserve and uses some to buy back, say, 10% of outstanding shares. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like it.

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For AISC to be 20k/t or in that area I believe we need 4 milestones completed.
1. Paste plant completed and commissioned.
2. Raise bore and additional vent rises completed with surface fan.
3. Switch yard power upgrade completed.
4. Mill upgrades and Underground fixed plant upgrades completed.
IMO hopefully most of these can be achieved this year.

I'll go into more details with a few things when the quarterly comes out if anyone has questions.
GLTAH and hopefully a recovery in tin price.
NFA

MLX Price at posting: 34.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
23 Upvote

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(20min delay)
Last 54.5¢		Change -0.010(1.80%)		Mkt cap ! $483.0M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
56.0¢	56.0¢	54.5¢	$613.2K	1.109M

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	75745	54.5¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
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No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	70745	0.545
7	75727	0.540
4	73500	0.535
5	72061	0.530
2	7404	0.525

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.550	48986	1
0.555	90000	1
0.560	243180	5
0.565	148168	3
0.570	117543	2

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