Discussion on SP, page-593

I concur with @arsenic. China is all that matters to most of the industrial resources market. And boy, have they driven the truck into the wall. But it's getting so bad now that the central government has to offer some credible solutions to the mess. The CCP congress will take place Q4 this year. There is tremendous pressure for XJP to deliver. The following article seems to point that way: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-25/china-property-stocks-bonds-rally-on-reported-state-fund-help

Assuming that China situation doesn't get any worse, it seems reasonable enough to assume we will be pottering along at CNY 190k/t and LME cash US$ 25k/t. Not great, but still good enough for MLX to produce a very nice cash profit. I've no worries about the company except that management may get tempted into some adventure with the company's cash pile.

If there is no buyback program put in place by end of this year, it would warrant some shareholder activism. But given how tightly held the stock is by APAC & allies it will be a hard one to pull off.