However, MLX has a strong balance sheet and continues to look cheap against a range of assumed long-term tin prices, even after factoring in some cost inflation to production. We show our updated DCF sensitivity analysis below: MLX DCF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Note: DCF based on detailed Life-of-Mine Plan published in June 2020, adjusted for NGE estimate of expected cost inflation. AUD Share price $ 0.41 << as at 31-Jan-23 Shares out. m 907.3 Market cap $m 372 Cash $m 119 << as at 31-Dec-22; incl 50% share of Bluestone JV cash Nico Resources (ASX:NC1) shareholding $m 10 << 15.7m shares, of which 0.7m escrowed until 19-Jan-24 Cyprium Metals (ASX:CYM) convertible $m 36 << Maturity 30-Mar-25 Cash and liquid assets $m 165 Hire purchase debt $m 4 << as at 30-Jun-22 Environmental rehab provision $m 15 << as at 30-Jun-22 Debt $m 18 Net cash $m 146 EV $m 226 Long-Term Tin Price (US$/t) $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 DCF per share (A$) $0.43 $0.66 $0.88 $1.10
MLX has the potential for further mine-life extensions via additional conversion of the ~320kt existing resource to reserves, exploration upside, or by tying-in other nearby tin deposits. None of these potential upside scenarios is captured by our DCF analysis. Longer-term, the outlook for the tin price looks positive: growth in tin demand driven by renewable energy and EV applications is forecast to outweigh new supply, leading to a significant deficit from 2025.
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