So quite here, so I had to break the silence :) * Aluminium...

So quite here, so I had to break the silence

* Aluminium supply/demand tightness expected, majority of AAI revenue
* Alumina flat to slightly down, minority of AAI revenue
* Bauxite expected to be down, very small share of AAI revenue
* AAI retraced 50% from its highs end of last year, compared to a 15% Al prices decrease, a likely due to the negative sentiment around the Trump tariffs since much of US Aluminium comes from low energy cost Canada.  I don't think these tariffs will survive long term as no one will want to invest in US aluminium production with its higher energy costs and the likelihood of the tariffs being scrapped in the next administration (if not sooner).   
* Al prices recovering over the past month
* Looks like some support at $38


'Alcoa CEO William Oplinger said during a post-earnings conference call: “Approximately 70% of our aluminium produced in Canada is destined for US customers and is now subject to 25% tariff costs… Currently, the net annual result is approximately $100m negative for our business.”
Oplinger highlighted the challenges around US production capacity, noting that even with all idle smelting capacity restarted, there would still be a shortfall of 3.6 million tonnes (mt).
He stressed the importance of Canadian aluminium for the US market, stating: “Until additional smelting capacity is built in the US, the most efficient aluminium supply chain is Canadian aluminium flowing into the country.”
Alcoa’s financial performance in Q1 2025 has shown resilience despite these challenges, with net income increasing by 171% to $548m.' [source]

Again highlighting the impossibility of feeding the US aluminium demand via purely domestic sources.  Strategically, I don't see a problem with a US dependence upon Canada (as opposed to the far less palpable China).