Intellimoney, much respect to you as i know you are no newbie...

Intellimoney, much respect to you as i know you are no newbie here and been in and out of the cnp room for quite a while but firstly; If cer were to go to 20 or 30 cents this shouldn't be a shock because cer was sold down dramatically last year and keep in mind cer still have a .N.T.A. of $1.27 as of June 30 2008 and if u based it on further right downs in U.S malls of 2-5% and 10% for Australian malls for 30 Dec 2008 half yearly and if u were to take super llc into consideration i.e. administration then even worst case scenario i believe n.t.a. is still more than enough to value the shares above the 20 to 30cents range that u are bearish about.

The other reason as to why the significant drop for cer last year took place apart from reits taking a hit across the board and massive right downs in most of the sector is it's relationship with cnp as both entities are quite different.If u heard that cnp was valued at 13cents then this doesn't automatically mean cer is valued at the same.cer is more than likely going to pull through even though the 15th December 2008 announcement was in principle for both cnp and cer.

I mentioned this in my earlier posts and so have others, that if super llc went into administration, then cer is joint and severally liable to the extent,but not beyond, it's equity in super llc thus meaning cer exposure is ringfenced in super llc and if cnp didn't exist than cer continues with another r.e that will run the business or run the business as a self advised trust if it so chooses.I'm not sure if this was a genuine mistake but you also mention that u would hold the shares for about 2weeks top but yet your sentiment = long term buy>> i'm a bit confused here.

It doesn't bother me as a longer term holder of cer if the shares were to stay in this range(20-30cents) for many many months; and as a long term investor i just see the possibility of it reaching to this level in the short term and holding it's range for a while but meanwhile 20-30 cents is still well undervalued imo and easily achievable given the factors i mentioned above.

But In my honest opinion; if i were to assess cer i'd start out by saying that cer currently trades at 12 cents and if investors can honestly sit down and even by assessing the worst case scenario tell me that the 2.8 billion + of "cer" equity = $1.27 N.T.A at june 30 2008 is not worth the current market cap of $274 million then i would like to know how they value a business.If u were to make an offer for the company which is closer to half the amount of equity in the business which = a market cap of roughly $1.45 billion and a share price of 63.5 cents then this is still no where near the 2.8 billion + of June 2008 equity the business had and even with right downs and a current market cap of $274 million then we are still well short of my worst case scenario valuation i.e. $1.45 billion. This isn't a company that promises shareholders that drilling results are a potential high grade gold target this is a company with real tangible assets and people sometimes forget this.

Again 20 - 30 cents sp is only getting back some of the losses we experienced in 2008 and still well short of even half the amount of n.t.a the business had at the end of June 30 last year.If cnp is currently worth more than cer i.e. intrinsic value then i'm more than happy to listen for the basis on this valuation.

cnp i have discussed in previous posts as i don't have the full details on the potential dilution for cnp shareholders come Jan 15 announcement as there isn't any mention of dilution for cer and i have to stick with the facts and by putting the whole lot together and worst case scenario which i also take note of when valuing any business on the stockmarket that i have an interest in and must say when doing the numbers i firmly believe that "cer is still well undervalued" imo.We still have a long way to go, maybe 2-3 years to possibly get 80%-90% of it's true worth back but in the meantime one can take advantage of the current sp and Like the world's best investor said, "If You Wait for the Robins, Spring Will be Over.So if you are convinced that your research gives u a considerable margin of safety and a possible dividend stream moving forward then best to get in at these prices b4 the potential multiple gains that one can experience in the long term is reduced.The market is more than likely going to move before investor sentiment is restored.Another positive here is we are experiencing alot of traffic in cer and most people are confident about its prospects in the future and are looking beyond the short term cycle that many people fear.Keep in mind that most of the big holders are still holding and not reducing their position and just to add that orbis was buying throughout most of last year.So is it possible that they understand the true worth of cer?....I would think so!



Cheers