distributable profit forecast 31.12.08 is 7.2c, page-30

g'day Rhyceshaw,

I think you said earlier that you were 25, so I'll be gentle. I suggest you do a little more research & have a hard look at previous crashes/bear markets. Being 40% below previous high is IRRELEVANT. US market & US overall, now a basket case & getting worse. But facts & history work best for me, so take a look at TRAILING S&P 500 PE's in previous bear markets. Their prospective PE’s have been & still are in fantasy land.
here's a useful link:

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/cpuplava/2008/1008.html

Also on that site take a look at Tim Wood pieces. He correctly called the start of this major bear market (& the first bear trap rally). I like their site as you can view their archives years back to see what was said at the time.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wood/2009/0109.html

Most think the 1929 crash was in 1929. Take a look what happened over the following 2-3 YEARS. The first crash (as with ours) was just the warm up.
Current S&P 500 PE is around 12, which isn’t far above the average of all the bear markets in last 100 years or so. BUT, is this an average bear or one of the worst (if not THE worst). Average of the 3 worst is 7.6. Now 12; you do the math.

I’m a student of history, particularly when it comes to the share market. The only thing that surprises me about this crash, is that everyone was surprised. Further, many think as you do; that as we’re 40% below top & the bottom even lower, we MUST have seen THE bottom? Well I really hope we have as I’m still 40% in shares. But I fear we will not only revisit the November lows, but go much lower. 1980 was a VERY mild recession in the USA, but S&P 500 PE still went under 10. Now 12!!
& this brute of a bear is far worse than 1980.

I’m often wrong; more on short term stuff. My long term record is ok. As I said I really hope I’m wrong this time, but history, facts & raw numbers suggest otherwise. Also looking at ASX numbers is fine as far as it goes, but we all know what happens when wall st dumps big time – we follow. Indeed this time we’re worse than wall st, which is weird. This crash is our #1 worst. Only 3rd worst Dow & 2nd worst for S&P 500 (more relevant).

I have made 4 criteria for myself before I’ll get serious in the market again. To date, none have come through. I retired on my investing nearly 4 years ago after a great 18 year run. I was fortunate to cash up late ’07, but still held too many shares into the dump. BUT, what I have learnt in this crash will stand me in good stead for the next bull run, which will surely come (no one knows when). For now, we’ve seen “A” bottom, not “THE” bottom.

CER continues to do very well; rising on down days in the US market. I’m hopeful the Obama led rally will continue for a few more weeks at least, so I can cash up some more.

On CER, I’ll do as I always do in this type of share; sell half when I double cost to have the balance running for free. Then sell half of that if/when they double again & so on. Did that 4 times with Regal petroleum (AIM UK stock); great fun (& very profitable) when it happens.
Trick is to always squirrel away a bit along the way. Letting it all ride is not the best way to get long term seriously wealthy.

Good luck to all on the good ship CER.


as usual;
CAVEAT EMPTOR - risk in all stocks.
Everyone should make their own investment decisions & not base them on what they might read on an Internet chat site, or receive from me (who is just an enthusiastic amateur) & even more so tonight with a couple of bottles of the great red ned in me.

Remember, this information is probably worth what you paid for it

cheers,

ned.

PS
Dave who?

DAVE WARNER!

Remember that name; we’ll be hearing a lot from this young cricketer.