So, what's in store for TYM? Hedera as underlying technology platform looks like a good pick at first glance. But is that really the case? What are the technological and business hurdles TYM has to overcome? And will TYM ever be successful?
So Hedera has a few pros and more cons. There is an interesting article found here:
https://www.trustthelink.com/does-hbar-have-a-future-3-pros-and-5-cons/ . The promised speed and transaction finalization has yet to be proved. Furthermore a big negative for corporations is that they have to pay in HBAR. HBAR is not a regulated currency, so it will be interesting to see how TYM management will solve that problem. Either TYM puts HBAR on its P&L or it forces their customers to buy HABR. It is definitely more volatile than BTC, see chart. So, there's a risk for either TYM or for TYM customers.
Interesting to see how TYM will cope with this problem and how it will affect the TYM businessmodel.
The other Hedera problem is that
the consensus technology is patented by Swirlds, it is not a truly open source technology. Swirlds is founding partner of a consortium that forces Hedera adoptees to finalize transactions via nodes that are managed and under control of the consortium partners.You can find the consortium partners that are running a node here:
https://status.hedera.comIt has striking similarities with Facebook's LIBRA project, which is now dead. The LIBRA project was designed to make Facebook and the founding partners rich and have power over all the others. This looks the case here too although Hedera claims to open up the network so that anyone can run their own node and process transactions and earn HBAR. The big question mark is how that will affect the network. Security comes at a cost and the transaction finalization of HBAR is already more than 5sec, so that will probably go up and the speed will go down.
Anyway, lots of uncertainties for TYM regarding Header's future and where the technology is going.
So how does the competition look like? One of TYM biggest competitors is Powerledger.
https://www.powerledger.ioFounded in 2016 and utilizing the Ethereum blockchain, Powerledger has outperformed BTC the recent years, meaning their solution has crossed the chasm and is gaining adoption quickly not only in Australia but across the globe too.
Powerledger is disrupting the incumbent energy companies when it comes to trading and tracking & tracing with regards to decentralized energy networks, a clear focus that TYM yet has to make. TYM could chose to work with the incumbents and try to extend their lifecycle. The other option is to get into a fight with POWR but that will require time and loads of money.
So what will the future hold for TYM? Despite the technological challenges, the first business challenge will be to find a paying customer that is willing to take on the journey with a technology stack which is built upon Hedera. Hedera hasn't proven a large scale implementation yet in the energy sector, probably only a small scale PoC by
https://recdefi.com. You can find the RecDefi use-case here on the Hedera website
https://hedera.com/users/recdefiLots of promises, but the RecDefi website hasn't been updated since its inception and is still signaling that they will go-live in the Summer of 2021.
So, the longs basically have 2 options either they pour a substantial amount money into TYM to build a sustainable business. That will require at least 15-20mln the next 2 years. It is not likely that this is going to happen.
The other option is for TYM management to focus on a niche in the energy market, support the incumbents and maybe work towards an exit. Challenge will be; "what is the niche?" and what are the costs needed to get traction? Clearly the current organization is stripped to a bear minimum limiting the route to success.
A last resort could be to pivot to a whole other market. Wonder what TYM management will do. Looking forward to Q1 update to see if TYM was able to close some early adopters.
