Distribution Curve

The extended time-frame of the phase 3 trial has been interpreted by several contributors as a substantial increase in mean progression-free survival in the HA group. However, this optimism appears to assume a normal distribution curve, which is, of course, bell-shaped. A modest distortion of this could yield a very small number of patients with a greatly prolonged progression-free survival time, and this could explain the extension of the time-frame. Such a pattern would not greatly improve the mean outcome score, although it would yield some helpful anecdotal data. I would welcome comments on these thoughts.