Again you may be right, but I don't think this is the driving...

Again you may be right, but I don't think this is the driving factor.

My take is that there are probably some institutional investors who want to reduce their exposure now rather than have to cough up for the second instalment and probably watch that drop to 50c in quick time.

They probably don't give a stuff if the distribution gets paid or not they just want to get out while there is still a market for the shares. Passing on a 5.95c distribution is a lot better than losing 50c on the next instalment. Paying the next instalment would give them even more weighting in a lemon investment.

As institutions the legal obligation to pay the second instalment is a very real one. The PDS states "If unitholders do not pay the Second instalment, BCMCL will take action to recover the amounts owing". Whether they still have legal recourse for investors who bought on market I'm not sure, probably one for the lawyers. This could get very ugly, the few retail investors that bought on the float and are still holding may not appreciate getting sued for the second instalment and I would expect some counter-suits would be lodged, against advisers etc.

Personally I don't think they would cancel the first distribution in the overall scheme of things (about 23M if all take cash) is not a big deal. If they cancelled the distribution the stock would become untradeable and draw even more media attention. Sure the stock will still be untradebale once it goes ex-div but at least that way it would only be a few months off the second instalment.