ralphmouth Welcome to our NSE thread.I think you have done very...

ralphmouth

Welcome to our NSE thread.

I think you have done very well by getting out of BPT. It looks it's coming to its peak. The best could happen to it from here is a takeover by 30%-%50 premium today's sp. Because its reserves our very well known by the experts now. BPT booked 2 TCF gas and the rest is well know now. It is already all factored in the sp as the shale is well know down there atm.

I believe the stock price peaks when the reserves are becoming clear when they are extensively drilled and certified. Therefore we don't need to wait sp to peak by development of reserves. It will happen much earlier. I am talking about the unconventional type of reserves here though, conventional type reserves are always very much speculative, sp may peak or bottom at any time.

The developing of the resources does not make any effect on the explorer's peak sp IMO. It is always being done by the majors. Think about it, Arrow had become a mid size explorer, even it was a producer that time, it was taken over. I was holding it, sold out at $3.85 and bought in LYC at around 40c.

Therefore the sp will peak after drilling by the explorer, but not before drilling, when we find the prospective shale formations after finishing the horizontal drilling, fracture stimulation and flow testing. (This might happen end of next year 2013). Then Conoco or anyone else might take over NSE. Our sp will be multiplies of what it is today. However, NSE's sp will keep climbing before and after drilling this year, as the shale O&G industry is very hot, NSE is not very well know, NSE is making a JV with a world major, etc. Everything is positive for NSE atm.

These things will be remembered by the people who had been in Coal Seam Gas players (QGC, AOE, PES, BOW, etc.)


Also, they are some other signs that our own majors like Woodside (WPL) are turning its eyes to shale O&G assets. This means that this industry is even going to be hotter than coal seam gas industry.

Here are just a few of the hot news from the shale oil and gas industry;

WOODSIDE Petroleum is "watching" the shale and coal seam gas sector with an eye to possibly exploring for this unconventional gas.
Source: Click here
"Mr Coleman said he was "casting a very broad net" for overseas assets, but would not name specific regions of interest"

My Note: "Overseas assets" ; Overseas assets in US! I don't think so, there aren't any spare seats in that stadium. It is full and a few empty seats are very expensive. Woodside wouldn't go to US assets when there many of them here in Australia. I think they are trying to hide their real targets. They might be looking to the assets here; it might be Buru, BPT, NSE, and some others in Georgina basin of NT (which I found out some of them very very good). See the next news below; explains why Woodside wouldn't be looking to overseas assets.

Australian Oil and Gas industry to become largest gas exporter by 2030

"A recent survey by GL Noble Denton found that the majority of the Australian oil and gas industry have a positive future outlook and believe that Australia will become the premium exporter of gas by 2030.

ENP reports that at present, Australia ranks as the world’s fourth largest LNG exporter following Qatar, Indonesia and Malaysia and as the tenth largest exporter of natural gas.

Favourable economic conditions and high levels of confidence in Australia’s energy future will fuel further capital expenditure within the industry, propelling the development of new LNG projects at an unprecedented rate” GL Noble Denton Australia country manager Richard Palmer said." Source: Click here


Unconventionals Lift ExxonMobil's Proved Reserves
"Boosted by unconventional natural gas and oil, particularly from North America, ExxonMobil Corp. added 1.8 billion boe to its proved reserves base in 2011, replacing 107% of natural gas and production, the company said Thursday." Source: Click here

Chevron Starts China Shale Gas Exploration, Builds Sichuan Plant
"Chevron Corp. said it began exploring for shale gas in China, holder of the world’s biggest reserves of the fuel, and expects to start a natural gas processing plant in the country next year." Source: Click here

Citigroup: Shale oil fracking has killed peak oil
"Peak oil is the idea that at some point in time, the world's supply of crude oil will start to run dry, and fuel production will enter a plummeting death spiral.
...
But in a research note, Citigroup says that the worrying "peak" of oil production has now risen far into the clouds. Thanks to new technology and a dash of good old-fashioned human ingenuity, we're able to find and extract from more sources of the fuel.
...
US oil production is now on the rise, entirely because of shale oil production," Citigroup explains.
...
It's not limited to North America, either. The Paris Basin in France "may also be rich in light, tight oil,", Australia's shale "may also hold promise", and the Vaca Muerta formation in Argentina is now estimated to hold about 23 billion barrels."