I actually had the some observations as you regarding the opening / close of todays candle...but since it takes me so long to write this stuff, I'll just leave it in.
Yearly Highs and Lows
Yesterdays large red candle was accompanied by a rise in the Hi Lo summation index, and today saw it rise further still – albeit by a small amount. While the number of new lows increased, so did the number of new highs, but the highs won todays battle and this indicates that traders are managing to find some value somewhere.
But a lot of the above analysis is minutiae, don't forget that the summation line remains below zero.
Candles
Todays candle could possibly be seen more as an inverted hammer than anything else, but lack of direction in the XJO over the last few days renders this candle a bit meaningless, since there is no trend occuring on the daily bar chart which can be reversed by the appearance of a hammer.
It might be worth mentioning the calculation of the XJO at this point. While some data providers might have differing Opening prices for the XJO, the definition of the XJO is controlled by S&P, who basically state that the Open print is the same as the previous Close, allowing for any adjustments, ie, only financial re-orgs will change the Previous Days Close/Today Open relationship.
Anyone who traded the markets today would have felt the markets “opening up big”, so with all due respect, today actually felt a lot more like a big red candle than a hammer. Just an observation.
Todays candle occurred on aveage volume, but slightly above average range, closing near the lows.
RSI
Our RSI is still heading to oversold, and I suspect, and maintain, that it will have to play out into OS territory before a sharp reversal occurs.
The OBV is also indicating more down movement at this point, but this is a bit more insidious, since there seems to be some divergence occuring.
Some more support for the traders beleiving that risk is worth considering comes from the relative strenth by size chart. While the indices representing larger stocks determine the direction of the tide, the moves in the XMD and XSO seem to indicate that some traders are willing to swim against it..
Oh for the old days when easy wisdom came from looking at SP500 action.
Currently I'm finding a lot of satisfaction in analysing the XJO in and of itself and ignoring overseas indices. As I write this, Euroland cash is screaming green, and US indices are mildly green, aroud 0.2%
Interesting comments on "predictions for tomorrow". Although we all tryi it, indices are notoriously difficult to predict, I've never tried anything that gives a "definitive" prediction for the next day, more a sort of guideline. I wonder how difficult it would be???
(20min delay)