dividend, cr or nada, page-2

Jessel,

I'm long as well and also down.

I don't think anybody knows what exactly is going to happen just yet. I'm inclined to think that the company has probably gotten all the dirty laundry out in one go while they had the chance. They are a conservative company so IMO would I hope over estimated instead of under estimate costs.

What I think though is being over looked is that despite the recent right down, QBE is still expect to make about $1 billion profit. Its still operating profitable and secured a debt facility they believe was necessary for the US operations.

It is important I think to note that dividend has been cut from previous levels as QBE has now set it at 70% of NPAT, previously the dividend was about the same as earnings per share (clearly unsustainable). This is a similar ratio now as the big 4 banks. And it acts to preserve capital.

I think many people would jump ship if they did another cap raising like the last one.


If they are going to do a cap raising I would expect it once the actual cost of Sandy etc are known.

IMO the sell off has been over done.