Arriving at a similar result from some rough calcs:
2013 Nett cash flow: $145M
Less 30 Tax: $43M
2014 Cap Ex: 25M
Nett: Nett $77M x 40% payout ratio = $30.76M / 123,456M shares
= 24.9 cps
I reckon they will want to appear conservative with their allowance for 2014 Cap Ex to assure the market that they are providing for the expansion of mine life, hence not wanting to rely 100% on future cash flows for all cap ex. Therefore they have the cash on hand to expand irrespective of IO price movements. The sweetener is that they will go to 40% of what is left over.
Some glaringly obvious price maintenance going on from what I can see.
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