dividend expecations, page-2

i wouldn't be expecting any divvys (or cap returns) in the next 6-12months, with my only caveat being 1) if we sell/jv montney or 2) wti/wcs go up to 85/70 respectively

logic being, if you look at the q1 '23 fcst in the bris energy paper (which must be pretty close to actuals given it was issed on 23 Mar).... ce1 was basically fcf of $0 once you take out the $2.8m of capex spent on montney. that was based on A$84/bbl average price. if we look at where we are to start Apr-qtr post the opec announcement, we're at US$66 wcs (1.34 USD/CAD; 0.91 AUDCAD) = A$97/bbl... so A$13/bbl more than Q1 avg. at 5000bbl/day that's about A$6m FCF a qtr (post capex of A$10m a quarter to sustain aorund the 5,000 level... maybe a little more).

So, A$24m p.a. FCF is potentially available if this holds for the next 12 months... but... i suspect montney will need c. A$10-20m to capex to get the pipeline / infra in place to get it flowing for lng canada in say late 2025. So... i suspect the $6m a quarter will be banked and used mostly for montney... even if we had a couple of good quarters, say $12m in the bank by sep-23, i suspect most of that would be held to fund monteny. we might get a token 1-2m divvy but personally i think the more prudent apporach would be to hold that to fund monteny so we don't need to raise equity again

as i said above, all reliant on oil price holding at today's level - and assumes no partnership on montney. the big upside here is if they sell down say 50% of monteny for A$50m and free carried on capex until 2026. that would be a great deal and we could then see a huge cap return....