dividend forecast, page-47

Yancoal holder from Germany here: I sold Yancoal 2 weeks ago for 5,98AUD, anticipating the drop of the share price with ex-dividend. Being situated in Germany, I'd have to pay 25% Dividend Withholding Tax to Germany, so rather take the share price bump before dividend, and get back in after ex-day.

I will buy back my full overweight position in Yancoal this week, as the stock is still criminally undervalued.

Rough back of the envelope calculation:
- Enterprise Value: 5,5 Billion AUD
- Production: 5MT MetCoal, 30MT Thermal (conservative)
- Sales Prices & Cost: (1) 300AUD Sales Price MetCoal (2) 150 AUD Thermal Sales Price (3) 100 AUD Production Cost / ton --> all conservative assumptions
--> (300 - 100) * 5 + (150 - 100)* 30 = 2,5 Billion AUD Gross Profit
- 500m AUD CAPEX, a little bit of Overhead, a bit of Royalties -> 1,8 Billion AUD - 30% Tax --> 1,2 Billion AUD Profit
--> 22% Cash Generation Yield, if they payout 50% thats 11% dividend yield. I consider my assumptions "worst case" assumptions, low shoulder season coal prices, at the cost curve, where if prices were to go lower some miners would reduce production (in my opinion).

So, in my eyes: Relatively safe 22% FCF Yield, and on top one gets the lottery ticket of multiple expansion or the market finally ascribing fair value to Yancoal's business and the stock shooting up!