that is a very interesting chart YellowSunit was me who...

that is a very interesting chart YellowSun

it was me who originally arrived at a dividend estimate. l was forecasting dividend income for the period July 14 -Jun 15. a long time in advance l know. there are a number of shares to forecast so it's quick but generally pretty accurate.

I felt that the initial estimate l used may have been too high when l later checked the dividend calculator in Rudi's web site and the average of the last three years was only about a third of what I had.

However, when I check the double of dividend payments, as well as the forecast through CommSec I think my original estimate was pretty close.

I don't have a PhD in mathematics, but I think that your calculation shows the 5 min est was pretty accurate.

There are of course many variables that can affect the dividend payments. As Rudi once said "I bought CSL for the terrific yield". we can only guess. 

I think they message is - if you are buying for a decade, don't worry about what the headline yield is now look at the growth rate for dividends (and the capital appreciation rate) instead.

I have always used a rule of thumb that a growing 3.5% dividend yield is sustainable just based pure guesswork.

A curiosity, I suspect strongly that the dividend growth rate for TNE is even higher again? I have always like SOL & BKW because they try to increase their conservative dividends each year as unwritten policy.

CSL has of course been quite flat for the last few years. However, the dividends continue to increase

cheers and interesting work.