Hi BlueSky,
I recently ran some scenarios to explore potential dividend rates and subsequent share price re-rate.
Any was you cut it, there is significant upside with MML.
If income starts to flow, capital gain will surely follow. The market will no longer ignore MML once a dividend is declared. 2021 is going to be a great year and I will continue to buy as many shares as possible before the re-rate occurs.
Base Case
NPAT - $80 000 000 AUD
EPS - $0.38
Payout Ratio 40%
Dividend - $0.15
Market assumed yield of 5% = Share Price $3.00
PER 7.9
Pessimistic case
NPAT - $60 000 000 AUD
EPS - $0.29
Payout Ratio 30%
Dividend - $0.085
Market assumed yield of 5% = Share Price $1.70
PER 5.9
Optimistic case
NPAT - $100 000 000 AUD
EPS - $0.48
Payout Ratio 50%
Dividend - $0.24
Market assumed yield of 5% = Share Price $4.80
PER 10
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