So half year results are out on Tuesday.
What are we thinking for the dividend?
Given NHC's massive franking credit balance, to me it makes more sense to pay out fully franked dividends than a share buy-back.
A share buy-back also is counter-intuitive, given they issued a convertible note less than a year ago - a crazy move in hindsight.
By my calculations, they should have +$400 million net cash position at end Jan, including $200 million from the notes. Now, just 6 weeks later, net cash is probably over $500 million.
On 832 million shares, that is 60 cents per share. So they have firepower for a 60 cent fully franked dividend - 20% FF yield.
Yes - i know that sounds totally ridiculous, and it is not my prediction. But YAL recently announced a 20% dividend, and they have significant debt. Also, they are pretty much guaranteed to generate ~$500 million free cashflow after tax in the second half. So paying out all their cash, is not exactly a risky proposition for them.
The only reason they wouldn't pay out all their cash is:
* They have a major acquisition on their mind - this seemed to be on the cards when they issued the convertible notes, but the opportunity for cheap assets in the coal space is now likely passed for the time being
* They want to maintain funds for New Acland expansion, assuming it gets the green light. I have no idea how much that would cost, but assume cant be more than $500 million given existing infrastructure is already in place
* Convertible note considerations - due to the dilution effect of dividends.
Anyway, for my part, i think the dividend will be 30 cents!
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